It’s always a notable occasion whenever the top two picks in any draft class face off, and when Azzi Fudd and Olivia Miles met for the first time as pros on May 14, Miles had 15 points and Fudd eight in a four-point Minnesota Lynx win.

Tthe stakes are higher for tonight’s 8:10 p.m. ET rematch. Miles’ Lynx lead the Western Conference Commissioner’s Cup standings at 3-0 with a plus-57 point differential, but Fudd’s Dallas Wings are 2-0 with a plus-31 mark, so they’d take over the lead with any win.

The Wings will be without Awak Kuier (wrist), as well as Odyssey Sims (ankle), who was wheeled off the court in Dallas’ win on Friday. Li Yueru (ankle) is probable. For Minnesota, 2024 MVP Napheesa Collier (ankle) and Dorka Juhasz (foot) still haven’t made their season debuts, and Emma Čechová’s season is over after she suffered a torn ACL against the Wings in May.

The Lynx are 4.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-192 Moneyline), with the total set at 172.5 points. Dallas is +160 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this highly-anticipated clash and offer a prediction.

Wings at Lynx prediction, pick

For Minnesota, it’s been no Collier, no problem. Though the Lynx haven’t released a timeline yet on Collier’s return to play, they might not have to rush her back, as they’ve won seven straight games, all but one by double digits. Miles has looked like the best rookie in the class, as she’s averaged 17.2 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 6.3 assists per game while hitting 57.7% of her two-pointers, and Natasha Howard’s exceptional play has helped make up for Collier’s absence. Minnesota ranks second in offensive rating, one rank behind the Wings, and it has had easily the league’s best defense. Meanwhile, Dallas has paired the league’s best offense with its ninth-best defense, and it’s 3-0 since elevating Fudd to the starting lineup. She’s averaged 12.0 points per game on 56-42-75 shooting splits, perfectly complementing Paige Bueckers, who’s built on her strong 2025 rookie season with even more efficient play.

Interior play has been a major issue for the Wings, so the Lynx should be built to take advantage. This season, Dallas has lost the paint battle by seven points per game, while Minnesota has out-scored its opponents by 10.2 points per game inside. The Wings have been particularly poor defensively, allowing the most shots per game within five feet, and while the Lynx have also allowed a lot of layups, they’ve limited opponents to the second-lowest percentage and Dallas has conceded the third-highest mark. Additionally, Minnesota has been the league’s third-best team at getting downhill and the third-most accurate finishing team, as Howard easily leads the league in close-range tries per game and Miles isn’t too far behind.

All things considered, the Wings haven’t been a terrible rebounding team given their lack of center last season, their decision to pass on Awa Fam and Lauren Betts in favor of Fudd, and the injuries that have sidelined both Li and Kuier. The issue is that they’ll be going up against the best rebounding team in the league, as the Lynx’s strong presence on the offensive glass should pose a major challenge for Dallas. Additionally, Minnesota has been the league’s best at forcing giveaways, leading the league in points off of turnovers, though the younger, scrappier Wings have been better at getting back in transition on both sides of the ball. This should be a relatively clean game, as neither team fouls very much nor draws many fouls.

Dallas has relied more on its perimeter shooting than the Lynx have, attempting 3.8 more three-pointers per game than Minnesota. Given its personnel, that strategy makes sense; Bueckers has turned some of her signature midrange jumpers into threes and her accuracy has improved, and Fudd was a 40% shooter in both college and the pros. However, when the Lynx have shot it, they’ve been efficient, trailing only the Golden State Valkyries in three-point percentage. If anything, their shooting could improve, as they led the league in three-point percentage in 2025 and Kayla McBride’s 30.4% accuracy from deep so far this season is a career-low. It’s just as well that both teams can shoot, since they also have allowed among the lowest percentages from the perimeter, with the Wings conceding 31.8% accuracy and Minnesota allowing 29.4%.

Given the Lynx’s willingness to allow threes — they have given up the most attempts so far this season — Dallas could cut into some of the deficit inside with a strong performance from the perimeter, but Minnesota has been so dominant on the interior that I can’t see the Wings covering the spread. True, their earlier game was decided by four points, but the game was played in North Texas and Sims had 11 points. It’s just hard to bet against the Lynx right now.

Best Bet: Minnesota Lynx to Win by 6+ (-110)