Closing down today’s NBA playoff double header, the Minnesota Timberwolves will face off with the San Antonio Spurs. The Timberwolves kicked off the series with a narrow victory on the road, but the Spurs have gotten back in the win column in each of the last two games to take a 2-1 series lead. Minnesota will attempt to defend their home court tonight and even the season series, while San Antonio will look to prove why they are the legitimate title threats they have shown to be all season and take full control.

Looking at the odds for Game 4, the Spurs are 4.5-point favorites and hold -192 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Timberwolves hold +160 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 217.5 points.

Timberwolves vs. Spurs preview

Coming off back-to-back Western Conference Finals appearances, the Minnesota Timberwolves have looked like more of a postseason threat than they have largely been talked about. While injuries have hit the team hard during the playoffs, Minnesota continues to show its toughness and refuses to roll over. The Timberwolves finished the regular season with a 49-33 record and earned the sixth seed in the Western Conference. They defeated the Denver Nuggets in the opening round, despite being undermanned, and made a statement in the opening game victory in this series. On the season overall, the Timberwolves have gone 41-50 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 51 of the 91 games played.

While injuries have been a major storyline throughout the postseason, Donte DiVincenzo is now the lone player on the injury report ahead of Game 4. DiVincenzo is still in the beginning stages of his recovery from the torn Achilles tendon that he suffered in Game 4 of the opening round. His absence will continue to be greatly felt, but not having Anthony Edwards on a minutes limit and Ayo Dosunmo being back available is a major improvement in their outlook.

Looking at the production this year, Anthony Edwards remains the head of the snake. The four-time All-Star is posting averages of 28.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.7 assists on the season. Julius Randle has outperformed his expectations, scoring 21.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game. Jaden McDaniels has scaled up his scoring role in a major way during this playoff run and helps set the tone for this team. Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid, Terrence Shannon Jr., and Mike Conley also play notable roles.

As a team, the Timberwolves average 118.0 points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. They also rank 12th in offensive rating, ninth in field goal percentage, and sixth in three-point percentage. Opponents are scoring 114.6 points per game against Minnesota, which ranks 12th in the league. They also rank eighth in defensive rating, seventh in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 13th in three-point percentage.

The San Antonio Spurs have flipped the switch into a true contender, and expect them to remain in this category for the foreseeable future. After finishing last season with a 34-48 overall record, San Antonio catapulted forward to finish this season as the second seed in the West by going 62-20 overall. They closed the year winning 19 of their final 22 games, and defeated the Portland Trail Blazers in five games in the opening round. On the season, San Antonio has gone 52-37-2 against the spread, and the game total is 40-51 to the over/under.

The Spurs enter this matchup with a clean injury report. Victor Wembanyama headlines the production as the most game-changing defensive talent in the league, with overall averages of 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 3.1 blocks this season. De’Aaron Fox provides some necessary veteran experience to this roster, averaging 18.6 points and 6.7 assists, while Stephon Castle helps set the tone on both sides of the ball and adds 16.7 points, 7.4 assists, and 5.3 rebounds per game. Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, and Julian Champagnie also play key roles.

The Spurs rank third in the NBA in scoring, adding 119.8 points per game. They also rank fourth in offensive rating, sixth in field goal percentage, and 15th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 111.5 points per game against San Antonio, which is the eighth-best rate in the league. Mitch Johnson’s squad also ranks third in defensive rating, fourth in opponent field goal percentage, and eighth in opponent three-point percentage.

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Series Takeaways:

It was a surprising Game 1 result in this series, as Minnesota’s postseason experience proved critical. San Antonio improved their record from 34-48 last season to 62-20 this year. They have looked the part of legitimate contenders across the regular season, but there is some amount of playoff scars that still need to be carved, and the Timberwolves have much more postseason experience.

Minnesota ultimately produced a 104-102 victory in the series-opening matchup. San Antonio got a good look at the buzzer for a potential game-winning three-pointer by Julian Champagnie, but the shot was off the mark. Spurs’ head coach Mitch Johnson elected to pass on calling a timeout and for the shot to occur organically. San Antonio got a look they should feel solid about, but it still felt like a massive missed opportunity from this Spurs team.

Overall, neither team extended a lead by more than nine points in the matchup, and each side led for 35%+ of the matchup. The rebounding battle was 47-46, the teams shot 46% and 45% from the floor, and the points in the paint were 58-52.

The Spurs are the more talented team who have played at a higher level for most of the season. But the Timberwolves have not been given the proper respect and have taken advantage of each opportunity they have had. Anthony Edwards looked healthier than seemed realistically possible after the opening round injury scare.

Things looked much different in Game 2, with the Spurs asserting the level of dominance they showed in the regular season. San Antonio cruised to a 133-95 win in which they led for 96% of the matchup and were able to get their starters some additional rest. Minnesota was limited to 40% shooting from the field and 30% from beyond the three-point arc.

Minnesota followed suit by prioritizing the rest of their own once the game got unreachable. Splitting the two games in San Antonio should be looked at as a success from the Timberwolves’ perspective, as they will return home with the series fully up for grabs.

Game 3 was a competitive battle that the Timberwolves were unable to fully cut the difference in. San Antonio held a lead for 87% of the game, but never extended it beyond 15 points. It was a four point game with 1:45 remaining in the fourth quarter, but the Timberwolves were unable to fully flip the game. While the result was frustrating, it was a positive sign that Edwards was able to log a full workload and looked closer to the healthy version of himself.

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Game 4 prediction, pick

This is the most important matchup of the series. San Antonio has played like a championship threat all season, but there has continued to be skepticism due to their youth and playoff experience. Picking up a second consecutive playoff victory on the road after showing a bit of this inexperience in Game 1. On the other side of things, if the Timberwolves can pull off the Game 4 upset, the series is back square and fully up for grabs.

My lean is toward Minnesota being able to accomplish this, with their grit and unwillingness to ever roll over really being put on display in these playoffs. However, the talent advantage is in San Antonio’s favor, and Victor Wembanyama’s 39-point outing in Game 3 is enough to give me some pause.

My favorite bet on the slate is for the game total to remain under the 217.5 game total. The game total finished at 206 in the opening matchup, but has gone over in the past two games. Both these teams ranked in the top eight in defensive rating across the regular season, and San Antonio leads all teams in the postseason. While Wembanyama got hot in Game 3, Minnesota is better equipped to slow him down than most, and they have done a solid job slowing down the others.

It is a near-impossible ask for the Timberwolves to put up a strong scoring effort against this Spurs team. The pathway to keeping this competitive is by matching their defensive level, and they are capable of doing this. Expect Minnesota’s defensive intensity to reflect their season outlook being on the line and for every basket being difficult to come by tonight. Tired legs are beginning to set in at this stage of the postseason, and expect the pace of play to slow a bit. Count on both these teams brining a full-scale defensive effort, and for the 217.5 to be too high for this must-win matchup in Minnesota.

Best Bet: Game Total Under 217.5 (-105)