Griffin Wong gives you a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s game between the Cleveland Guardians and the Milwaukee Brewers.
Four teams in the MLB have juggernaut status, with a winning percentage over .600 and a run differential of plus-100 or better. Those who have closely followed the MLB over the last decade wouldn’t be surprised by any of the four teams (the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves, and Milwaukee Brewers).
Of the four juggernauts, only one team has never won a World Series, but they’ve passed their current test against a fellow perennial playoff team in the Cleveland Guardians, winning the first two games of the series. They’ll go for a sweep at 2:10 p.m. ET.
Parker Messick will start for the Guardians, and Shane Drohan will take the mound for the Brewers.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
After a seven-game winning streak in late May, Cleveland almost joined the group of juggernauts, climbing to 31-23, but it has gone cold since, going 8-13 to fall into a tie for the division lead with the Chicago White Sox. Still, the Guardians should be in a good position to ultimately win the division and make the playoffs for the third consecutive season. Cleveland has been winning in spite of its offense; it finished last season second-to-last in OPS and ranks third-to-last so far this season, including a pitiful .636 mark since the start of June, and with perennial MVP candidate José Ramírez sidelined with a fractured hand for the next six weeks, that’s unlikely to improve any time soon. Thankfully, the Guardians have once again made up for it by having an elite pitching staff, as they rank sixth in ERA, with the eighth-best rotation and 11th-best bullpen. All five of Cleveland’s starters have been healthy and solid, and closer Cade Smith leads all of baseball in saves.
It’s just unfortunate for the Guardians that they’ve run into a buzzsaw. Milwaukee hasn’t lost more than two games in a row since April 25, and since then, it is 32-13. For the season, the Brewers have the seventh-best offense, but since the start of June, they’ve slashed an unbelievable .303/.379/.527 for an OPS 40 points higher than any other team, though by playing three games at Las Vegas Stadium certainly helped. Jackson Chourio is fully back to form, and Brice Turang has added elite hitting to his Platinum Glove-caliber defense. Additionally, Milwaukee’s pitching staff ranks fourth in ERA, in part due to Jacob Misiorowski’s heroics every five days and in part due to an elite bullpen led by setup man Aaron Ashby, who leads all of baseball with 10 wins. Only two pitchers on the Brewers’ roster have at least 25 innings of work and an ERA north of 4.
Thankfully for Cleveland, it has the right man on the mound to bounce back this afternoon. Messick had a stellar seven-start cameo last season and has been even better in his official rookie campaign, posting a 2.68 ERA in his first 14 starts. While he’s coming off of a rough outing, giving up four runs in 4.2 innings against the New York Yankees, he’s been excellent more often than not, giving up two or fewer earned runs in 10 of his 14 games. Advanced numbers back up his strong surface-level resume: he ranks above the median in every single Statcast category except for fastball velocity and ground ball rate. The latter could be a concern against an offense whose only major weakness is their league-leading grounder rate, but his 73rd-percentile chase rate should put Milwaukee more on the back foot than it’s used to, inducing weak contact. The splits are mixed; he’s been better on the road so far in his career, but the Brewers have been slightly better at home.
All in all, the starting pitching matchup should be relatively even. Drohan started his career as a high-level reliever but was moved to the rotation at the start of June, to mixed results. He picked up a win against the Colorado Rockies, giving up five hits and three runs in 6.1 innings, but in his most recent start, he allowed eight hits and four earned runs in five innings of work against the Philadelphia Phillies. In some ways, the lefty has a better advanced profile than Messick, as his 2.99 expected ERA ranks in the 81st percentile. He also ranks in the 86th percentile in chase rate and the 83rd percentile in walk rate, which could challenge a Guardians team with a patient plate approach, but he’s prone to the occasional damage, ranking in just the 32nd percentile in barrel rate and giving up a homer in two of his last three starts. Thankfully for him, Cleveland has little power, ranking second-to-last in that stat. I’m expecting five innings and two earned runs, especially since the splits are in his favor (he’s been significantly better at home, and the Guardians have been slightly worse on the road).
The first game in this series went under the total and the second went over, but in the second game, Milwaukee started Brandon Sproat, by far the weak link in its rotation. Cleveland’s offensive weaknesses should mitigate Drohan’s, and Messick is always reliable for five or six solid innings.
Both of these teams have excellent contact skills, but neither team has much power, and the team that has more (the Brewers) is going up against the pitcher better-suited to limit hard contact. It should be a very old-school game with plenty of traffic on the base-paths but not many runs.
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