The National League Central is wild at the moment.

Just think, if you had asked Pirates fans two months ago if they’d be happy with a 16-16 start, most people probably would’ve said yes. However, the Pittsburgh fanbase probably isn’t in the mood for optimism at the moment. After Paul Skenes got roughed up by the Cardinals on Thursday afternoon, the Pirates have lost five in a row and sit dead-last in their shockingly competitive division.

Meanwhile, the Reds are at the other end of the spectrum, sitting atop the NL Central and having won nine of their past 12.

Can Cincinnati keep the good times rolling this evening? Let’s preview this divisional clash and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Reds vs. Pirates prediction, preview

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Mitch Keller is pitching really well to start the season. That’s kind of expected at this point, is it not? The 30-year-old has been a pillar of the Pirates’ rotation for over a half-decade now, pitching to career marks of a 4.46 ERA and a 3.98 FIP. Since the beginning of 2022, Keller is one of 37 pitchers to accumulate 10.0 fWAR. He’s just solid. However, the veteran does have a habit of starting strong and fading in the dog days of the season. Keller’s first half ERA in 2025 was 3.48 before it ballooned to 5.65 after the All-Star break. Same story in 2024 when it went from 3.46 to 5.65 in the second half. Heck, same story in 2023 when he saw his 3.31 ERA turn into a mark of 5.59. Good news is, the calendar only flipped to May this morning — not July.

Over six starts in 2026, Keller has maintained a 3.18 ERA and a 3.10 FIP. He’s not racking up strikeouts like he used to, yet a 3.0% opponent barrel rate is a career-low, and it’s translated into surrendering a mere 0.26 home runs per nine. This also sets up to be a pretty good matchup. While the Reds have gotten everything they could have hoped for to start the year from Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart, no one else is contributing much. Cincinnati’s .220 batting average is the lowest mark in MLB and a 91 wRC+ ranks 25th. That said, the teams sports a .220 ISO and a 115 wRC+ over the past 14 days, so maybe the bats are heating up. The best barrel rate in the National League also portends positive results in the future (11.6%).

The Reds will need to score if they want to win on Friday. At least, that’s how it’s gone this season with Brady Singer toeing the rubber. The RHP’s fastball velocity continues to plummet, which has led to Singer being in possession of a ninth percentile strikeout rate (14.2%) and fourth percentile opponent average exit velocity (92.4). That’s a very foreboding combo. In 29.0 innings of work, Singer’s pitched to a 4.97 ERA and a 5.34 xERA. He’s managed some decent results in his last three outings, very six strikeouts over 17.1 innings doesn’t exactly inspire a lot of confidence. At least he’ll get to take the mound at PNC Park tonight. Pitchers like PNC.

Reds vs. Pirates pick, best bet

Best Bet: Oneil Cruz 2+ Total Bases (+120)

Not only has Singer been unable to strike batters out, but he’s allowed opposing LHBs to slash .366/.403/.493 with a .396 wOBA. Cruz has a .549 expected wOBA on batted ball events. That’s in the 97th percentile of the league.

Strong Lean: Over 8 (-118)

I’m underwhelmed by this starting pitching matchup, and the Reds’ bats are heating up. There could be some fireworks.