NL East foes are set to meet this evening in South Beach. The Braves (34-16) have dominated all season, looking the part of a World Series contender. It’s been more of a struggle for the Marlins (22-28), looking to build some consistency. Can Miami earn an upset at home against a divisional rival?

The Braves are favorites (-143) over the Marlins, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between Atlanta and Miami on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Braves vs. Marlins prediction, preview

In this battle between standout hurlers, it’ll be Spencer Strider on the bump for Atlanta. Despite missing all of April with an oblique strain, the right-hander has looked like his old self this season. During his first three appearances, Strider has notched a 2.45 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 18 strikeouts (11.0 K/9). That includes six scoreless innings against none other than the Dodgers on May 9th. If the fireballer can come close to his former dominance, an already potent Braves rotation becomes even more dangerous.

In years past, a trip to Miami has been a boon for opposing pitchers. However, this year’s group has shown some fight at the plate. The Marlins are 14th in runs scored (218), seventh in batting average (.246) and first in stolen bases (60). However, the Fish suffer from a serious lack of power; they’ve hit the third-fewest homers in baseball (39). Keeping that in mind, generating traffic on the base paths will be key for the home team tonight.

Strider’s favorite pitches, other than the fastball, are the slider (28%) and curveball (17%). Against those two offerings, Miami owns a .277 batting average, .321 on base percentage and .446 slugging percentage. With that being said, the four-seamer has proven to be a challenge for the Marlins. They’re hitting a meager .193 against fastballs with a velocity of at least 95 MPH.

On the other side, it’ll be Sandy Alcantara making his 11th start of the season. After a disappointing 2025 campaign, the former Cy Young winner has looked more like his usual self. Over 63.2 innings of work, the southpaw has notched a 3.53 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 45 strikeouts (6.4 K/9). Miami’s workhorse is prone to the occasional blow-up outing, but he’s usually on point at home. During six appearances at LoanDepot Park this season, Alcantara has put up a 2.95 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. The Dominican is coming off of a six-inning, scoreless gem last week vs. the Rays.

Sandy will need to be at his best this evening against a star-studded lineup. The Braves are averaging 5.92 runs per game on the road, second-best in baseball. Although Drake Baldwin (oblique) is sidelined, the club recently activated former MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. off the injured list. Among healthy Atlanta hitters with at least 100 plate appearances, six have recorded a wRC+ of at least 100. The NL East leaders have been worse against lefties (.740 OPS) than they have against righties (.784 OPS).

Braves vs. Marlins pick, best bet

With 82% of all bets on the moneyline, Atlanta is the overwhelming favorite on Thursday. That alone is enough to give the Marlins extra consideration in this one. After all, they’ve got an ace on the mound in addition to an underrated lineup. Alcantara has produced a 2.59 ERA over seven career meetings at home with the Braves. Another quality outing tonight could carry Miami to a much-needed victory.

Best Bet: Marlins ML (+119)