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It’s still just May, but it once again looks like a two-horse race in the NL West, with the Padres and the Dodgers set to battle it out all summer long.
With San Diego’s 1-0 victory on Monday, the team is now a half-game up on Los Angeles in the division. The Padres will now look to secure a series win with another great performance on Tuesday. However, I don’t think this tilt will be quite as impressive a pitcher’s duel.
Let’s break it all down and preview this long-standing rivalry with a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
It’s been a bit of an uneven season for Emmet Sheehan, but there’s good reason for positivity on Tuesday night. First and foremost, the young RHP has looked much better in his past five starts, pitching to a 3.38 ERA and a 2.85 FIP. That’s the type of success you can enjoy when you strikeout 35 batters and walk only six across a 26.2 inning sample.
The other cause for optimism? A matchup with the Padres’ underwhelming and extremely right-handed lineup. In the month of May, San Diego is hitting exactly .200 as a team. It ranks dead-last in the National League in both wOBA (.273) and wRC+ (74). The Padres also sit last in the NL in the number of plate appearances left-handed hitters have taken against right-handed pitchers (417). Generally speaking, Gavin Sheets and Jackson Merrill are the only LHBs in the club’s lineup on a daily basis. That’s going to make hitting Sheehan difficult, as his handedness splits are significantly lopsided. All seven home runs he’s conceded have been to lefties, as those within the split are slugging a combined .588 off the 26-year-old. As for RHBs? They’re slugging a mere .254.
However, that’s not San Diego’s only issue this evening. The Padres have been trying to piece together the back-end of their rotation all year long, and that’s currently resulting in a lot of Griffin Canning. The long-time Angels RHP didn’t break camp with the team due to injury, yet Canning’s made three outings since his call-up at the beginning of May. Things started well with five solid innings against the White Sox, but Canning’s since allowed six earned runs in back-to-back appearances. There’s a little unluckiness involved — as there always is. Mainly, though, Canning isn’t doing himself any favors, as he’s issuing a free pass to 16.4% of the batters he’s faced. Woof.
The Dodgers aren’t a team that need any help scoring runs, either. Even with Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Kyle Tucker all underperforming to their own lofty standards, Los Angeles leads baseball with a 118 wRC+. It also leads MLB in expected batting average (.267), expected slugging (.452) and expected wOBA (.352). I know this isn’t breaking news, but the two-time defending World Series Champions with the payroll of a small island nation are pretty good at lighting up the scoreboard.
This is basically the battle of the worst offense in the National League versus the best offense in the National League. Let’s just say I don’t think that the Dodgers are getting shutout for a second night in a row.
Sheehan’s in possession of a 1.13 WHIP across his past five starts. Plus, as mentioned above, he’s dominated right-handed hitters, holding them to a .206 average and a .244 wOBA. The Padres struggling lineup should put up little fight.
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