The third fight on tonight’s Most Valuable Promotions MMA card is a Welterweight contest between two of the most polarizing stars in the sport, Nate Diaz and Mike Perry. Diaz, 41, is 22-13 with 18 finishes and beat Tony Ferguson in his previous MMA fight at UFC 279 in September 2022. Perry has a 14-8 MMA record with 11 knockouts and last competed in 2021.

Check out my prediction for Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry taking place at tonight’s Netflix MMA MVP.

Mike Perry To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (+185)

Since leaving the UFC in 2022, Diaz has had two boxing fights, with his last coming in July 2024. First, Diaz lost to Jake Paul in August 2023 and then defeated Jorge Masvidal 11 months later. Diaz’s last MMA victory came in September 2022 at UFC 279 against Tony Ferguson. After competing in the UFC for 15 years (2007 to 2022), Diaz is set to have his first MMA fight outside the promotion.

Perry went 7-8 in 15 fights throughout five years with the UFC. He lost his last two UFC fights, then left the promotion and became a superstar. Perry has gone 7-1 in his last eight fights, with six of them coming in BKFC. His lone loss in that span came against Jake Paul in a boxing match, which was the first of his career.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Perry is a -205 favorite with Diaz as a +170 underdog. This fight has an over/under of 4.5 rounds, with the under being -125. Perry is +165 to win by decision and +185 to win by KO/TKO/DQ. This contest is -130 to end early and +100 to go the scheduled 25 minutes. Although Perry has spent a ton of time fighting Bare Knuckle, there is a good chance this fight takes place the majority of the time on the feet. If that occurs, it benefits Perry, and it would be surprising if Diaz were able to strike with him.