Hard times in the NL West. Just about the entire division is scuffling at the moment, which makes this an auspicious time for the Padres and Giants to clash. But despite the struggles, the Padres could end the day atop the division. The Giants would settle for climbing out of last place by the end of the day. Yet one of these teams will ultimately come out the winner.

First pitch is set for 9:45 p.m. ET. The Padres are -136 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, while a Giants upset is priced at +113. The game total is set at O/U eight runs.

Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Padres-Giants game.

Padres vs. Giants Preview

First things first, let’s get to know these starting pitchers.

The ascent of Randy Vásquez in San Diego continues. The righty is building on a strong 2025 campaign, posting a 2.94 ERA through six starts. The underlying numbers expect some regression, largely due to his high exit velocities, but he has made some significant changes. In his previous two seasons with the Friars, Vásquez had a paltry 5.4 strikeouts per nine innings rate, relying on soft contact to get outs. This year, he has struck out 34 batters in 33.2 innings. Becoming a strikeout-per-inning guy can significantly change his long-term outlook. Adding 1.4 more MPH on his fastball and improving his breaking stuff has certainly played a role.

With Vásquez, you never know which pitch is coming. The primary mix comes from the four seam and cut fastballs, which he throws 31% and 27% of the time, respectively. He also tosses a curveball, sinker, and changeup with regularity. Vásquez throws a new slider, which he introduced in limited capacity this season, and can chuck a big sweeper now and then. All have good velocity and movement, making him one tough customer when he toes the rubber.

Opposite him will be Trevor McDonald, freshly called up for his season debut. The no. 16 prospect in San Francisco’s farm system, McDonald made his major league debut in 2024 and has four career appearances with two starts. Things are not going well for him in AAA this year with the Sacramento RiverCats: the righty holds a 5.40 ERA, after posting a 6.20 ERA last season. Command continues to be a significant problem, as McDonald has issued 15 free passes in 15 innings.

Unlike Vásquez, McDonald is largely a two-pitch guy. Sinkers and sliders, that’s what you’ve got to be prepared for. The slider has some good drop, and both are ground ball pitches when he’s working well. He also mixes in a changeup and a cutter.

He’s not the only important Giant making his season debut. Bryce Eldridge, San Francisco’s top prospect, got the call-up from the minors and is almost certain to be in the lineup. The hulking first baseman got limited action in the majors last year and may be up for good. In AAA this season, Eldridge has a dazzling .333/.445/.518 triple slash line. He makes extremely hard contact and rarely gets cheated in the zone, impressive considering his large strike zone.

SF also called up catching prospect Jesús Rodríguez, who may be getting into his first-ever major league game tonight. Rodríguez is batting .330 in AAA this year, his fourth straight minor league campaign batting over .300. Nightmare fuel for incumbent Giants catcher Patrick Bailey.

The hope for the Giants is that these new bats can wake up a slumbering lineup. San Francisco is dead last in runs scored, home runs, walks, and stolen bases. Yet they are somehow first in team batting average. Perhaps a “nobody’s safe” attitude will get guys like Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, and Matt Chapman to live up to their big contracts.

San Diego’s lineup has been considerably better, but it still has some struggles. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, usually the anchors of this lineup, have both been mediocre. Tatis Jr., ever the batting-stance tweaker, has yet to slug a home run despite a 61.5% hard hit rate. Jackson Merrill is off to a slow start of his own, but the veterans like Ramon Laureano, Gavin Sheets, and Xander Bogaerts have kept things afloat. There’s plenty of reason to have an optimistic rest-of-season outlook for these Padres bats.

Both bullpens have been stellar, though this is more of a surprise on the SF side. Mason Miller is the best closer in baseball, bar none, and has good supporting arms in Jeremiah Estrada and Jason Adam. San Francisco has been excellent despite the absence of Randy Rodriguez, the breakout 2025 star. Despite the lack of a true closer, they’re getting good production from unheralded arms like Caleb Kilian, Matt Gage, and Keaton Winn. It’s a good group for newbie manager Tony Vitello to work with.

Now that we know these teams a bit better, who is going to take this one home?

Padres vs. Giants Pick, Best Bet

It’s possible that the new call-ups light a fire under these Giants. But, right now, they are playing terrible baseball. San Francisco is returning from an 0-6 road trip where they scored nine total runs and suffered multiple walk-off losses. Even if Eldridge provides some big swings, they’re relying on a young pitcher working through severe command issues against an experienced arm on a hot streak. This is not going to go well for the Giants.

Best Bet: San Diego Padres Run Line -1.5 (+119)