As the United States prepares for its first World Cup as hosts since 1994, there’s plenty of pressure. With two-thirds of all participants getting out of the group stage, the Stars and Stripes have no excuse not to make at least the knockout rounds, and there’s some expectation of at least a quarterfinals run.

But before Mauricio Pochettino’s men can get there, they’ll have to navigate Group D first, and it’s as wide-open as it gets. Let’s take a deep dive into all four teams:

Group D Preview

Here’s a look at the Group D odds at DraftKings Sportsbook:

The United States is a narrow favorite to top the group. The Stars and Stripes benefited from being placed in Pot 1 as a host country, so they won’t have to face any of the sport’s traditional giants. At No. 16 in the latest FIFA World Rankings, the United States is the highest-ranked team in the group, and it has arguably the biggest-name manager in former Tottenham Hotspur boss Pochettino. The Stars and Stripes are pretty well-rounded, as wing-backs Antonee Robinson and Sergiño Dest are top-tier playmakers at their respective positions, and the attack is deep and talented, with Christian Pulisic and Timothy Weah on the wings and Folarin Balogun, Ligue 1’s fourth-top scorer, manning the middle. They were strong in their tune-up friendly on Sunday, defeating African giants Senegal.

Turkey will present a major challenge. The Crescent-Stars, ranked 22nd in the world, had to go through an extra playoff round to qualify after suffering one lopsided defeat against Spain, but their backups drew La Roja in the return leg, and their typically concerning defense was extremely stout in back-to-back 1-0 victories in the UEFA playoffs. Turkey has two of the most promising attacking talents in the world, as Real Madrid wunderkind Arda Güler scored two goals in the Champions League against Bayern Münich and Kenan Yıldız smashed home 10 goals for Juventus in Serie A. Further back, Hakan Çalhanoğlu provides veteran leadership and steady playmaking for Italian champions Inter, and goalie Uğurcan Çakir led the Süper Lig in save percentage for victorious Galatasaray. The Crescent-Stars also beat the United States in a friendly last summer.

Paraguay is back in the World Cup after a 16-year absence, but given that the Albirroja tied with Colombia, Uruguay, and Brazil on points throughout COMNEBOL qualifying, they definitely shouldn’t be counted out. They were limited in the attack throughout qualification, never scoring more than two goals, but they also never conceded more than two, as Palmeiras’ Gustavo Gómez and Sunderland’s Omar Alderete form a pretty devastating center-back pairing. Left winger Miguel Almirón, the most valuable Paraguayan player ever, is past his prime, but his versatility should allow him to complement the new star pairing of Julio Enciso and Diego Gómez. The Albirroja did lose to the Stars and Stripes in a friendly last fall, but they beat Mexico three days later.

Australia brings up the rear, but the Socceroos have their strengths. They suffered just one loss in Asian World Cup qualifying, and while they only faced one truly strong team, they picked up four points from their encounters with continental giant Japan. Australia’s main men are Jackson Irvine, who was a regular starter for relegated Bundesliga outfit St. Pauli, and goalkeeper Matt Ryan, long a top-flight starter. Additionally, the Socceroos have one of the more promising young talents in the sport, as lightning-fast 20-year-old Nestory Irankunda produced eight goal contributions for Watford in the Championship this season. However, their friendly results haven’t been promising, as they’ve lost to each of the United States, Venezuela, Colombia, and Mexico in the past several months.

How will these squads translate into results on the pitch? Let’s take a dive.

Group D Predictions

Despite the United States’ being the favorite, Turkey is the best bet to win the group, especially at +175 odds. The Stars and Stripes’ center-back pairing is solid, but Chris Richards clearly isn’t 100% healthy after spraining his ankle on club duty with Crystal Palace, and Tim Ream’s age is a concern. I find it hard to believe that those two will be fully capable of slowing down Çalhanoğlu, Güler, and Yıldız, and I’m not sure that the United States would’ve drawn 2-2 with Spain’s backups. Both teams should pick up all three points against Australia, which is by far the weakest side in the group, but Paraguay’s defense is more capable of playing out a low-scoring draw against the Stars and Stripes than the Crescent-Stars. The United States’ best player ended the season in bad form, as Pulisic hasn’t yet picked up a single goal in 2026, and perhaps Çalhanoğlu’s late-season injury is a blessing in disguise, given his advanced age and Inter’s fixture congestion this season.

This group is highly unlikely to produce the tournament’s leading scorer, given that the group winner will be a heavy underdog in the quarterfinals against Spain, if it makes it that far. However, the winner of the group will face a third-place team in the Round of 32 and likely Belgium in the Round of 16, and the Red Devils have been somewhat vulnerable defensively against higher-ranked squads, giving up five goals to Wales across two qualifying matches and two to the Stars and Stripes in a friendly. In that case, I’d take a flyer on Balogun at +8000, given that he’s a guarantee to every match up front for the United States in Pochettino’s lone-striker formation and has been in solid form for Monaco. Turkey’s attack is more well-rounded, so its offensive production could be split between Güler, Yıldız, Çalhanoğlu, and Kerem Aktürkoğlu.