Zach Thompson details some of his Round 1 best bets for the Zurich Classic this week at TPC Louisiana.
The PGA TOUR is in the middle of a very busy stretch of big tournaments, but this week’s event is a break for many of the biggest names on the PGA TOUR. The players who are teeing it up get a chance to compete in the only team-up event on the official schedule as the field of 74 two-man teams takes on TPC Louisiana. Round 1 tees off on Thursday, with the earliest tee times at 8:00 a.m. ET. Let’s take a look at the wide variety of markets available on DraftKings Sportsbook and pinpoint some of my best bets for Round 1 of the Zurich Classic.
The format for Round 1 (and Round 3) of this event is “four-ball,” which means each of the members of the team plays separately, with the lower score counting as the team score. Since there are two teams in each group, it’s quite literally four balls being played, with the lower score counting for each team. The format usually leads to extremely low scores, since players can choose to be very aggressive on the risk/reward layout of this Pete Dye design. Last year’s leaders at the end of Round 1 were -14, while 12 teams were at least -10, including two teams that actually missed the cut.
In this post, we’ll focus on my three best bets for Round 1 of the Zurich Classic of New Orleans on Thursday, April 23. Let’s tee it up!
Let’s start with a quick-hitter right off the tee. These two teams contain some of the biggest names in the morning wave, and they start their round at 8:39 a.m. ET. They’ll begin on the back nine, and this prop matchup is just for the first three holes of the round.
The three holes are a pair of par-4s sandwiched around the par-5 No. 11. As with most of the holes on this course, there are risk/reward decisions throughout these three holes, but the four-ball format allows players to be aggressive, especially on the par-5. If the groups are tied at the end of these holes, this pick will be a push.
Thorbjornsen and Vilips have shorter odds (+1950) to win the tournament than Keefer and Brennan (+2200) and shorter odds to finish in the top 10 as well. Getting them at almost even money is a good value option in this three-hole sprint matchup.
Thorbjornsen and Vilips opened with an -8 last year and finished T4 in this event, while Keefer and Brennan are making their tournament and course debut.
Both pairs come in with some solid flashes of form, but Vilips finished T19 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open and a T33 at the RBC Heritage in his last two starts, while Thorbjornsen finished T33 or better in four of his last five starts as well. Over the last three months, Villips ranks eighth in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting while Thorbjornsen ranks 13th in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 18th in Total Strokes Gained. His putter has been what has held him back, so the skill blend for this team should be strong.
Brennan has been playing well lately, but Keefer has five missed cuts in his last seven events. I’m a big fan of both Keefer and Brennan’s long-term upside, but they don’t seem quite as ready to contend this week as Thorbjornsen and Vilips. If this is a push, win or loss, you can also spin this forward to three-hole sections throughout Round 2 as these teams duel it out.
I highlighted Horschel and Hoge in my top cash game plays for this week, and the team has an extended history of success at this event. Even though Hoge’s current form has been shaky, playing with Horschel could help even out his inconsistency and lead to big things for the team this week.
Horschel has been a fixture at TPC Louisiana and should be able to carry this team while also helping Hoge, since he has experience and success in team formats in the past.
Finau and Greyserman are also well-known names, but they come in with shaky form as well. Finau finished last at the RBC Heritage and hasn’t played this event since 2021, when he finished T17. Greyserman has had a little more success, including a T4 in 2024, when he partnered with Nico Echavarria. He’s been struggling, though, missing the cut in three straight events since his top-20 finish at Bay Hill.
All of these established players are looking to earn points towards improved status for the upcoming Signature Events and the FedExCup Playoffs, and this week could help spark a resurgence for them. Of the group, though, Hoge and Horschel’s form and experience make them a strong plus-money play.
In the afternoon wave, the French team of Matthieu Pavon and Martin Couvra tee off at 2:08 p.m. ET and will take on Ryan Palmer and Chan Kim in this head-to-head round 1 matchup.
Couvra is a 23-year-old from France who will be making his PGA TOUR debut this week. He earned the Sir Henry Cotton Rookie of the Year award last year on the DP World Tour. During the season, he won the Turkish Airlines Open in October and totaled five top-5 finishes on his way to finishing 19th in the Race to Dubai.
Couvra will be playing with his countryman Pavon, who has had success on the PGA TOUR after joining from the DP World Tour a few years ago. He won the Farmers Insurance Open in 2024 shortly after moving to the PGA TOUR full-time, and this year, he has made the cut in seven of his 10 events, including three top-30 finishes, highlighted by a T11 at the Valspar.
Pavon made his debut at this event last year but missed the cut with Victor Perez. Maybe this tandem will be a better fit, although their games are similar from a strengths perspective of accuracy and shotmaking with putting not their strongest aspect.
They’ll match up against Palmer and Kim, though, who come into the week with extremely low expectations. Kim missed the cut last year and has missed the cut in two of his four PGA TOUR events this season. He did have a top-10 finish on the Korn Ferry Tour in January, but went MC-MC-T57 in his last three tournaments on that circuit.
The 49-year-old Palmer was a fantasy golf stalwart for many years, but he missed the cut in each of his two events this season after making just five cuts in 25 events last year. He also missed the cut at this event, although he does have some great history at this track from much earlier in his career. He won in 2019 and will be playing this event for the 16th time. While the history is worth acknowledging, he’s just not that player any more.
This should be a good spot for the French tandem to get the win to close out the day, and they could be a good sleeper team to post a high finish this week.
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