Garion Thorne details his top home run props for tonight’s slate, including bets for Jake Bauers, Alec Burleson and Willson Contreras.
Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s slate: Jake Bauers, Alec Burleson and Willson Contreras.
Let’s break them down.
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers | +301 | Brady Singer is allowing 2.32 homers per nine for the season as a whole — the third-highest mark in baseball among the 120 pitchers with at least 60 innings thrown. Meanwhile Bauers has already set a new career-high in home runs (13) and he’s managed a .908 OPS and a .250 ISO in opposite-hand matchups. |
| Alec Burleson | +385 | Merrill Kelly is struggling. He’s in possession of first percentile marks in both expected ERA (7.51) and opponent barrel rate (15.3%). LHBs have mustered 2.33 home runs per nine with a .400 wOBA. Burleson, who has posted a .342 ISO and a 170 wRC+ in June, should take advantage. |
| Willson Contreras | +304 | Contreras has slumped the past week after hitting a pair of homers on June 14. However, the combo of Coors Field and Ryan Feltner should cure what ails him. Feltner owns a sixth percentile xERA (5.79) and he pairs that with a 14th percentile opponent hard hit rate (44.7%) and a 15th percentile opponent barrel rate (10.6%). Woof. |
In-depth analysis below.
If you’d like to get a sense of just how home run prone Brady Singer has been so far in 2026, know that he hasn’t given up a long ball in either of his past two starts, yet he’s still allowing 2.32 homers per nine for the season as a whole — the third-highest mark in baseball among the 120 pitchers with at least 60 innings thrown. Not to oversimplify things, but the combination of diminished fastball velocity and Great American Ball Park has apparently been too much for the veteran RHP to overcome, as has a sixth percentile opponent average exit velocity (91.3). Singer’s been especially poor against left-handed batters, surrendering a .324/.383/.565 slash line within the split. That’s where Bauers comes into the picture. The journeyman LHB is having a breakout campaign in Milwaukee, having already set a career-high with 13 home runs in just 263 plate appearances. Bauers is a classic platoon bat and he’s managed a .908 OPS and a .250 ISO in opposite-hand matchups. He should be able to do some damage versus the struggling Singer.
There might not be a better matchup to draw these days than Merrill Kelly. The long-time Diamondbacks starter (with a little Rangers mixed in) comes into tonight’s tilt with the Cardinals in possession of first percentile marks in both expected ERA (7.51) and opponent barrel rate (15.3%). Statistically, there just isn’t a pitcher locked into a rotation spot that’s struggling to the degree that Kelly is. Left-handed hitters have especially teed-off on the 37-year-old, as those within the split have combined to hit 2.33 home runs per nine with a .400 wOBA. Well, Alec Burleson is St. Louis’ best LHB. Heck, he’s sneakily been one of the best LHBs in MLB in 2026. Burleson sports a 96th percentile expected slugging (.554) and a 95th percentile expected wOBA (.390). In June alone, he’s managed a .342 ISO and a 170 wRC+. That is the definition of “red-hot” at the dish.
Back on June 14, Contreras hit a pair of home runs against the Texas Rangers at Fenway Park. They were his 15th and 16th long balls of 2026. Since that day, the converted backstop has been in a little bit of a slump, but there’s no better place in MLB to get back on track than Coors Field. Even with the rough week, Contreras clearly remains the Red Sox’s most dangerous hitter, as he’s slashing .282/.378/.525 with a .243 ISO and a 145 wRC+ for the season as a whole. On Monday, he and the rest of Boston’s bats will get to square-off with Ryan Feltner. The right-hander has been limited to only nine starts, yet it’s been a large enough sample to showcase the 29-year-old’s warts. Feltner owns a sixth percentile expected ERA (5.79) and he pairs that with a 14th percentile opponent hard hit rate (44.7%) and a 15th percentile opponent barrel rate (10.6%). That’s no way to survive toeing the rubber a mile above sea level.
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