The Pirates are 41-40 at the halfway point of the regular season.

For a franchise that has struggled to maintain relevance in recent years, this is actually quite the accomplishment. Logically, you’d assume that the team’s best player, Paul Skenes, would be a vital part of Pittsburgh’s turn-around, yet you’d sort of be mistaken. Allow me to explain. Somehow, the Pirates have lost each of Skenes’ past seven starts. That’s right. With the reigning Cy Young Award winner on the mound, Pittsburgh hasn’t won a game since May 12. What is going on?

Can the Pirates end this dubious streak on Friday evening? Or will the Reds find a way to gift Skenes another loss? Let’s preview this divisional clash and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Reds vs. Pirates prediction, preview

I guess the first question in a situation like this is simple: Is Paul Skenes at all to blame for the lack of wins? As you might have already guessed, he is not responsible in the slightest. The right-hander’s 2.86 ERA is almost a full-run higher than it was in his rookie and sophomore campaigns, yet Skenes’ 2.61 xERA is right in line with his career-mark of 2.59. You also have to remember that Skenes’ surface stats have been fighting an uphill battle since Opening Day, when the former first-overall pick surrendered five “earned” runs to the Mets in only 0.2 innings — no thanks to some questionable defense in the outfield. If you remove that outing, Skenes owns a 2.37 ERA with a 0.87 WHIP in 2026. He hasn’t quite matched the efforts of Jacob Misiorowski or Cristopher Sanchez, but there’s no doubt that he’s been his usual, elite self so far this season.

The simple truth is that Skenes has been lacking run support, which is incredibly ironic, because the Pirates finally have a good offense. Heck, Pittsburgh is third in the league in runs scored (409). It ranks third in batting average (.257) and fourth in wRC+ (107). It’s not even like Skenes has been running into some tough-luck matchups, either. In this personal seven-game losing streak, the Pirates have been shut down by the likes of Patrick Corbin, Colin Rea, Eric Lauer and Tomoyuki Sugano. I know it’s a much-treaded joke at this point, but maybe Skenes really should demand a trade to the Yankees. Sorry, Pittsburgh fans. I don’t really mean it.

Tonight, the Pirates will be looking to course correct. They’ll be looking to put up some crooked numbers against Andrew Abbott, who was named an All-Star for Cincinnati last season. 2026 did not start quite as swimmingly for the 27-year-old right-hander, but Abbott’s re-found his groove since the beginning of May. In fact, in Abbott’s last nine outings, he’s maintained a 2.34 ERA and held opponents to a microscopic .210 batting average. That said, the underlying metrics aren’t as smitten. In that same span, Abbott’s benefitted from a .226 opponent BABIP and a 92.0% strand rate. Pittsburgh is due for some positive regression, while Abbott might be due for a stinker.

Reds vs. Pirates pick, best bet

Best Bet: Paul Skenes to Record a Win (-106)

Conisder this an alt Pirates moneyline, which is currently hovering around -200. The Pirates have a top five offense in baseball by several metrics, at some point, the law of averages says they’ll score Skenes some runs. Meanwhile, the Reds sit 30th in average (.213) and 28th in wRC+ (81) in June. They won’t get to Skenes.

Strong Lean: Pirates Over 4.5 Runs (+100)

Andrew Abbott is due for some serious regression and the Reds will follow him up with a bullpen that ranks 29th in xERA (5.01). Pittsburgh is one of five teams with over 400 runs scored. They can do this.