San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

The expectations for Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals could not be any higher, after these two teams treated us to one of the greatest NBA Playoff games of all-time in Game 1. The Spurs controlled the majority of the game, but a late push from the Thunder got the game into overtime. Just when it looked like OKC was going to escape with a win, Victor Wembanyama channeled his inner Steph Curry and sent the game to a second overtime, where San Antonio prevailed.

Wemby put up an all-time stat line, finishing the game with 41 points and 24 rebounds. Finding ways to slow him down will be the key to this series, as OKC desperately searches for answers. That said, Game 2 sets up as a very strong spot for the Thunder to even the series. Of course, desperation is a piece of the pie, as OKC cannot afford to go down 0-2 with the series shifting to San Antonio. But this isn’t just an “OKC will win because they have to” handicap. There are a couple of angles with numbers that strongly support backing the home team in this one.

While the Spurs are a very young team, this is going to be a tough turnaround for them. All five starters for the Spurs played 44 or more minutes, as multiple guys set career-highs in minutes played — including 49 minutes for Wemby. Meanwhile, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was the only member of the Thunder to play more than 40 minutes, who also gave 10 players 10 or more minutes in Game 1. OKC’s depth should be an advantage in this game following Monday night’s marathon, especially when you consider that the Thunder had four more days of rest than the Spurs prior to Game 1.

Aside from additional depth and rest, history tells us that OKC is tough to beat off a postseason loss. Of course, we have no data to go on from this postseason, as the Thunder were 8-0 in these playoffs through the first two rounds. But OKC dropped seven total games en route to winning it all in the 2025 postseason, and responded every time. Literally, every time — OKC went 7-0 following those losses, including 6-1 ATS. If we narrow it down to OKC playing at home following a playoff loss, it went 4-0 SU/ATS, winning by an average of more than 25 points per game. The shortest margin of any of those wins was by 12 points in Game 7 of the NBA Finals against the Pacers.

The Spurs very well could be the better team and go on to win this series. But we have plenty to go on that tells us OKC ties this series at 1-1, and could do so with some margin. I’m on board with backing OKC any way you’d like in the game. I think laying -6.5 is a strong bet, but I believe we’ll see the Thunder come out of the gates playing with some purpose. My top wager in terms of a side for the game is to play OKC 1H ML with the Full Game ML, which gets us a -140 price tag.

NBA Pick: OKC 1H ML/Full Game ML (-140)

In the absence of De’Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper was sensational in Game 1 — 24 points, 11 rebounds and six assists. Obviously, Fox being ruled out with an ankle injury, along with the game going to double overtime, created plenty more opportunity for Harper. That said, Harper had cleared 16.5 points + rebounds in seven of his previous nine playoff games entering the Western Conference Finals, which happens to be his prop for Game 2.

Fox is labeled a game-time decision for Game 2. If he’s ruled out again, Harper would be in tremendous position to go over his props, which would get bet up from this number. The Spurs can afford to give Fox a couple more days given the 1-0 series lead, along with the success Harper had filling in.

But even is Fox does return in Game 2, I still think Harper props are the way to attack this one. Again, Harper has cleared this number in eight of his last 10 playoff games overall, and averaged 14.7 points and 6.2 rebounds in the series against the Timberwolves, with Fox active for every game.

NBA Pick: Dylan Harper OVER 16.5 Points + Rebounds (-107)