The San Francisco Giants (18-25) and Los Angeles Dodgers (25-18) close their series Thursday night at Dodger Stadium with Los Angeles trying to turn Wednesday’s 4-0 win into something sturdier than a one-night reset. The Dodgers snapped a four-game skid behind Shohei Ohtani’s seven scoreless innings, back-to-back solo homers from Santiago Espinal and Mookie Betts, and clean late work from Tanner Scott and Kyle Hurt. Thursday asks a different kind of question. Ohtani is out of the starting lineup, Landen Roupp brings San Francisco’s best contact-suppression profile into the matchup, and Emmet Sheehan gives the Dodgers a miss-bat arm against a Giants offense that has flashed more top-half thump lately without turning into a steady run-scoring group. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Dodgers vs. Giants prediction, preview

Roupp is the reason this total should not be priced like a normal Dodgers home spot. He enters 5-3 with a 3.09 ERA, and the underlying profile is even stronger: 2.52 xERA, 2.51 FIP, 3.11 xFIP, 28.8% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate, 18.1% K-BB rate, 53.4% ground-ball rate, .253 wOBA allowed, .255 xwOBA, 85.6 mph average exit velocity, 23.8% hard-hit rate and zero barrels allowed. The arsenal explains the run prevention. Roupp is throwing 37.1% sinkers, 29.0% curveballs, 19.4% changeups, 12.3% cutters and only 2.1% four-seamers, giving him three primary shapes that keep hitters off lift-and-pull timing. The sinker has lived on weak ground contact, the curveball is the swing-and-miss/bottom-drop weapon, and the changeup gives him a soft-contact separator against left-handed bats. His one risk is traffic, because the walk rate can stretch pitch counts, and he needed 94 pitches to get through four innings in his last start. The under still starts with the quality of contact: a pitcher allowing a .255 xwOBA and no barrels is exactly the arm to send into a Dodgers lineup missing Ohtani.

Los Angeles still has enough hitter quality to keep this away from the reckless alt-under bucket. The Dodgers have hit .264/.342/.432 with a .775 OPS, 43 HR, 125 walks and 252 strikeouts in 1,224 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, and several individual bats remain capable of beating a total quickly. Andy Pages has 9 HR, a .223 ISO, .312/.360/.535 slash, .390 wOBA and 151 wRC+. Max Muncy has 11 HR, a .279 ISO, .272/.365/.551 slash, .398 wOBA and 157 wRC+, with the best true one-swing profile in the Ohtani-free order. Kyle Tucker’s full-season line is calmer at .260/.359/.416 with a .348 wOBA and 123 wRC+, but his recent form is the real warning: .370 over his last nine with six extra-base hits, seven walks and only six strikeouts. Freddie Freeman adds the stabilizer at .277/.350/.434, .349 wOBA and 123 wRC+. The current team form still trims the ceiling. Los Angeles has scored three or fewer runs in 10 of its last 14 games and has ranked 26th in hard-hit rate over the last 10 days, so the names remain scarier than the recent inning-to-inning pressure.

Sheehan brings more volatility than Roupp, but his strikeout profile is strong enough to keep San Francisco’s side of the total capped. The surface line is loose at 2-1 with a 4.79 ERA, and his Statcast profile has allowed a .354 wOBA, .328 xwOBA, 87.9 mph average exit velocity, 40.7% hard-hit rate and 9.3% barrel rate. The fastball is the pressure point: Sheehan throws it about 40% of the time, and that pitch has produced too much damage when he misses middle. The under case is his slider and whiff form. He is using the slider about 31.6% of the time, pairing it with a changeup near 17.9% and curveball near 10.1%, and the slider has been his escape pitch when he gets to two strikes. The broader strikeout trend is real: 28.3% strikeout rate, 15.4% swinging-strike rate, 21.7% K-BB rate, plus 7, 8 and 10 strikeouts across his last three starts. Against a Giants lineup with several low-OBP pockets, that miss-bat lane matters more than the ERA.

Giants vs. Dodgers pick, best bet

San Francisco’s offense has improved enough to make Giants team total under 2.5 uncomfortable, but the season-long shape still supports the full-game under. The Giants have hit .240/.289/.370 with a .659 OPS, 25 HR, 63 walks and 242 strikeouts in 1,130 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. The last-10 righty split is better at .247/.305/.420 with a .726 OPS, 11 HR and 64 strikeouts in 309 plate appearances, which shows more lift but still leaves a small on-base base for crooked innings. Rafael Devers is the real danger, hitting .382/.450/.765 with 3 HR, four doubles, 6 RBI and 8 runs over his last 10. Luis Arraez gives San Francisco a contact leadoff-type bat with a .310 average, .347 OBP and 4.0% strikeout rate. Casey Schmitt brings the most stable impact profile at .285/.338/.500, .367 wOBA and 137 wRC+, while Heliot Ramos adds a .272/.314/.437 line and 111 wRC+. The drop-off after that keeps the total from running away: Chapman, Adames and the bottom third have not supplied enough consistent traffic, and a 64-strikeout last-10 split against righties gives Sheehan multiple clean exit ramps.

The market comparison points to the full-game number. Dodgers team total under 4.5 makes sense through Roupp’s profile and Ohtani’s absence, but -130 asks for a shorter price on the same core idea while still leaning on the Giants bullpen. Giants F5 +0.5 isolates Roupp cleanly, yet Sheehan’s strikeout form can strand San Francisco and produce a 1-0 or 2-1 Dodgers lead through five. Giants ML at +149 has a real pitching case, but it asks a .659-OPS-vs-righties offense to beat the Dodgers’ late-inning group. Under 8 gets the widest path: Roupp’s barrel suppression, the Ohtani scratch, Sheehan’s swing-and-miss, San Francisco’s low-OBP season profile, and a Dodgers offense that has been too dependent on isolated power during its recent scoring dip. The bullpen stress point is San Francisco’s side, with heavy recent usage in the middle group, so the number matters. At 8, there is enough cushion for a 4-3, 4-2 or 3-2 game. At 7.5, that cushion is gone.

Best bet: Under 8 -114. Playable to -120. No chase at 7.5. Roupp has the best contact-suppression profile in the game, Sheehan has enough strikeout bite to manage San Francisco’s top-heavy offense, and Ohtani’s absence lowers the Dodgers’ quickest path to a total-breaking inning.

Projected score: Dodgers 4, Giants 3.

Best bet: Dodgers vs. Giants u8.0 total runs (-115)

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