Over the first three games of the NHL Eastern Conference Final, we’ve gotten a blowout win for the Montreal Canadiens before a pair of overtime victories in favor of the Carolina Hurricanes. These teams are competing with a trip to the Stanley Cup Final on the line, so the stakes can’t get much higher at the Bell Centre tonight. Will we see the Canes go up 3-1, or will the Habs manage to battle back and tie the series at two games apiece?

Here’s a Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Game 4 prediction and pick for Wednesday’s NHL Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Game 4 prediction, preview

This has been quite the series thus far, but there’s a concerning trend for the Canadiens. What’s that, you may ask? They’ve been drastically outshot lately. In Game 1, they managed to score six goals but lost the SOG battle 22-28. In Game 2, they were outshot 12-26, a margin which looked even worse in Game 3 with a 13-39 difference. What does that tally sit at overall in the series, then? It’s 47-93, which means Montreal has been outshot by nearly double its own attempts. Woof.

With that in mind, it’s kind of stunning that the series score is just 2-1 in favor of Carolina. The fact the last two games both ended with final scores of 3-2 is even more surprising given the disparity in attempts. The Habs have played some tough hockey to keep things as close as they’ve been so far, but there’s a big disparity in some of the underlying numbers as well. Per Natural Stat Trick, the Hurricanes have a huge edge in 5v5 play with 189 chances for to 116, an 8.27 xGF to 5.11, and 36 high-danger chances to 23. There’s a big difference in 5v4 play on the man advantage as well. The Canes are up 2.7 to 0.59 in xGF, though they’re yet to connect for a goal in such situations.

The scoreboard reading like it does says a lot about Montreal netminder Jakub Dobes’ play. He’s atop all goalies in the Stanley Cup Playoffs in goals saved above expected and has largely been excellent, even in the face of high volume at times. Based on the numbers though, it does feel like the momentum is bound to change at some point as Carolina connects on a couple more of those chances. The underlying metrics and out-chancing their opponent by such an extreme margin probably means the scoring will explode soon.

Hurricanes vs. Canadiens pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Hurricanes as -148 road favorites to win on the Moneyline tonight, while the Canadiens come in as a +124 underdog at home. The game total sits at 5.5 combined goals.

Betting splits show 52% of straight bets on Carolina to win, 58% of wagers on Montreal to cover the +1.5 puck line, and 68% on the total’s over.

As mentioned in the previous section, it feels like it’s simply a matter of time before the Hurricanes’ offense begins to find the net more often. While the Canadiens’ defense is very solid overall, their offense has cooled off significantly over the last two games and hasn’t produced the kind of scoring or shot volume that’ll be necessary to truly compete here. At some point, the Habs must find a spark and put more pucks on net — their 23.5 shot attempts per game are the fewest of any team that competed in the Stanley Cup Playoffs by a margin of 1.1 per game. Compare that to the Canes, who lead the entire field with 33.1 shots a night, and it’s a wonder this series hasn’t been more lopsided.

With that key factor, the underlying stats and the recent form over the last couple of games taken into consideration, it feels like the dam may break tonight. After Montreal covered the +1.5 puck line in the last two contests, Carolina should be able to secure a multi-goal win and cover its own -1.5 line tonight. It’s become exceedingly clear that the Hurricanes are, in fact, the better team of these two. The Canadiens’ time will come, it’s just not here yet.

Best bet: CAR Hurricanes -1.5 (+180)