Opening up the three-game Saturday slate of WNBA action, the Indiana Fever will take on the Atlanta Dream.

This is the third of four matchups between these two teams this season and a rematch from Thursday night. The Fever picked up an 83-71 win in the first matchup on June 4 before the Dream answered with a 108-101 triumph earlier this week.

The Dream enter as 4.5-point home favorites with -205 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Fever hold +170 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 175.5 points.

Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Fever at Dream matchup.

Fever at Dream Preview

The Indiana Fever are off to a 9-6 start to the season. Their previous loss to this Dream squad snapped a four-game winning streak, but they have battled some ups and downs already this season. Overall, Indiana has gone 7-8 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in eight of their 15 games.

Kelsey Mitchell headlines the production on the season, averaging 21.1 points and 2.5 assists per game. Caitlin Clark is not far behind with 20.8 points and a team-high 8.2 assists. Clark has battled a back injury but was available for Thursday’s matchup. Her status is worth monitoring leading up to tip-off, but the expectation seems to be that the two-time All-Star will continue battling through the issue. Aliyah Boston is averaging 17.5 points and 8.6 rebounds per game, while Sophie Cunningham is the lone other player averaging in double figures. Damiris Dantas, Monique Billings, Tyasha Harris, Myisha Hines-Allen, and Shatori Walker-Kimbrough also play key roles on the team.

Indiana ranks second in the WNBA in scoring at 92.2 points per game. They also rank seventh in offensive rating, first in pace, fourth in field-goal percentage, and fifth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 88.1 points per game against the Fever, which ranks 10th in the league. Indiana also ranks sixth in defensive rating and eighth in opponent field-goal percentage, while allowing the fewest three-point attempts per game.

The Atlanta Dream enters with a 10-4 start to the season. They have won back-to-back games, and four of their last five entering this matchup. Atlanta’s four losses have come against the Las Vegas Aces, the Minnesota Lynx, the Indiana Fever, and the New York Liberty. On the season, the Dream have gone 8-6 against the spread, and the game total is 7-7 to the over/under.

Allisha Gray is off to a stellar start to the season, averaging 19.4 points and 3.4 rebounds per game. Rhyne Howard adds 18.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.5 assists. Angel Reese contributes 15.1 points and 12.2 rebounds per game, while Jordin Canada also averages in double figures with 11.1 points and a team-high 6.7 assists. Naz Hillman and Te-Hina Paopao also play key roles.

As a team, the Dream ranks sixth in the league in scoring, averaging 88.6 points per game. They also rank third in offensive rating, ninth in field goal percentage, and 10th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are averaging 82.1 points per game against the Dream, the third-lowest mark in the WNBA. Atlanta also ranks third in defensive rating, 12th in opponent field-goal percentage, and ninth in opponent three-point percentage.

Fever at Mystics Pick, Best Bet

The Indiana Fever got the better of the first matchup between these two teams with an 83-71 win. Atlanta struggled offensively in this matchup, shooting just 34% from the field and 29% on three-point attempts. Indiana extended their lead as large as 15 and held it for 72% of the matchup. The Fever had a scoring punch that the Dream were unable to match, and Indiana kept them at arm’s length throughout.

It was a different story in the most recent matchup, with Atlanta securing a 108-101 win. The Dream were in the driver’s seat for this game, leading for 78% of the matchup and extending this lead to as many as 15. Both teams shot the ball well, but the Dream won the rebounding battle and scored an impressive 60 points in the paint.

Thursday’s matchup took place in Indiana, and the pair of teams traveled to Atlanta for the Saturday matinee. Playing on the road has been a bit of a struggle for Indiana, though the sample size is limited. The Fever are 3-3 when playing on the road compared to 6-3 at home so far this year.

Neither of these teams has found their peak ability and full identity just yet this season. But I am backing the Dream to defend home court and cover the 4.5-point spread for the second consecutive matchup against the Fever. Atlanta has a loaded front court that Indiana lacks the size to match. While the Fever’s perimeter shooting can be the equalizer, these interior looks are more reliable for Atlanta. Indiana has shown significant progress in recent weeks, but I am still not sold that they have fully fixed the holes exposed early in this season.

Expect the Dream to look to impose themselves physically throughout and for Atlanta to feed off a lively crowd. Don’t expect Indiana to have much margin for error with the Dream having a clear path to dominating the rebounding and possession battle. They have proven capable of matching the Fever’s impressive offensive output and have a higher baseline of defensive impact. Expect the Dream to carry their same level of desperation and cover the 4.5-point spread for the second consecutive game between these two opponents.

Best Bet: Atlanta Dream -4.5 (-115)