Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and best bet for today’s baseball game between the Chicago Cubs and the Colorado Rockies.
The Rockies arrive at Wrigley Field with a box score loud enough to wake the lakefront. Colorado just scored 23 runs on 24 hits in Las Vegas, with Willi Castro driving in seven and Hunter Goodman homering twice. Chicago comes home at 37-35 after a grim stretch, but this matchup gives its offense a clean runway. Michael Lorenzen brings a 7.54 ERA, Wrigley has wind pushing out, and the Cubs do not need to trust their pitching staff to cash the better angle. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Chicago Cubs and the Colorado Rockies.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Lorenzen bought himself one good night against Chicago last week, holding the Cubs to one run across five innings. The season around that start remains brutal. He has allowed 101 hits in 65.2 innings, with a .412 wOBA, .366 xwOBA, 45.0% hard contact, and 9.3% barrels. That is a dangerous profile anywhere. At Wrigley, with 10 mph wind moving out toward right-center, it becomes a constant traffic problem. Lorenzen can survive when hitters beat the ball into the ground. Chicago’s best swings right now are built for something louder.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is the first reason this bet has life. He is hitting .405 over his last 10, with 17 hits, four homers, eight runs, and an 18-game on-base streak. His season contact backs up the heater: 91.4 mph average exit velocity, 49.7% hard contact, 11.3% barrels, and a .357 xwOBA. Michael Busch gives the order another in-form bat after a nine-game hitting streak and a .333/.462/.667 road trip. His .356 wOBA, .355 xwOBA, and 11.8% barrel rate fit this wind perfectly. Ian Happ has been uneven, yet he owns two homers and a 1.233 OPS in 12 at-bats against Lorenzen.
The rest of Chicago’s offense is why the side feels shakier than the run total. The Cubs have a .737 OPS over their last 10, with 40 runs, 14 homers, 33 walks, and 88 strikeouts. That is playable, not overwhelming. It still works against this pitcher and this bullpen. Colorado’s relief group ranks at the bottom of the league, and the usage layer is ugly. Seth Halvorsen, Zach Agnos, Blas Castaño, and Jeff Criswell have all carried recent volume. Lorenzen’s job is hard enough. The second half of this game may be worse.
Colorado’s lineup keeps the run line uncomfortable. Castro, Tyler Freeman, TJ Rumfield, Goodman, Ezequiel Tovar, Cole Carrigg, Jake McCarthy, Kyle Karros, and Braxton Fulford bring fresh confidence into a friendly park. Goodman is the swing Chicago has to fear, with 20 homers, 91.1 mph average exit velocity, 46.8% hard contact, and 16.0% barrels. Shota Imanaga just handled this lineup with five scoreless innings and seven strikeouts, but his 4.44 ERA and 10.8% barrel rate leave some danger. One Goodman swing can turn Cubs -1.5 into a sweat.
That is why the best bet is Cubs team total over 5.5 at -105, playable to -120. Chicago gets the most vulnerable starter, the worse bullpen, the better weather fit, and two in-form left-handed bats at the front of the case. Cubs -1.5 is viable at -105, but it asks Imanaga and the late innings to hold down a Rockies team coming off a cartoon offensive night. Full-game over 9.5 has life, too, though it spreads the wager across both lineups. The cleaner read is Chicago getting to Lorenzen early and adding enough against Colorado’s bullpen.
Best bet: Cubs team total over 5.5.
Projected score: Cubs 7, Rockies 4.
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