One team struggling, the other soaring. The San Francisco Giants are having a hard time getting on track, while the Cincinnati Reds continue to surprise through the first month of the MLB season. Will those trends continue on Thursday?

First pitch is set for 12:40 p.m. ET. The Reds are -122 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, while a Giants upset is priced at +102. The game total is set at O/U 8.5 runs.

Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Giants-Reds game.

Giants vs. Reds Preview

First things first, let’s get to know these starting pitchers.

Landen Roupp takes the mound for the Giants, who are in desperate need of a win. The 27-year-old was solid in 2025 — his first season as a full-time starter — posting a 3.80 ERA over 22 starts. So far, so good in his follow-up campaign; Roupp has a 3.24 ERA through three turns, backed up by a 2.37 expected ERA. He is doing an excellent job at frustrating hitters so far.

Roupp mostly relies on a power sinker and curveball combo, throwing those pitches 63% of the time. No wonder hitters are putting the ball on the ground 56.5% of the time and failing to make consistent hard contact. Incredibly, not a single batter has registered a barrel (batted ball of 98+ mph with an optimal launch angle) against Roupp this year. The Giants may have a good one on their hands. Just look at this pitch movement.

Opposite him is young phenom Chase Burns. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 draft, Burns flew through the Cincinnati system to debut last season at 22 years old. When you have a fastball that averages out to 98.5 mph, minor league ball sure seems easy for you.

It’s no wonder he is using that four-seamer 56% of the time this year. He pairs that with a nasty slider that sits at 91 mph, faster than some four-seamers, throwing his breaker 37% of the time. The rest of his pitches are dedicated to a changeup that, wildly, comes in over 90 mph as well. It’s an unfair arsenal, and it’s why he can get away with effectively being a two-pitch starter.

Burns is still working it out in the majors. His walk rate is a bit high, the chase rate isn’t what you’d like to see from a guy this talented, and the underlying numbers don’t love him. But with this kind of swing-and-miss potential, any improvement in his command and pitching craft will lead to exponential growth.

San Francisco’s offense has been a bummer, to say the least. Despite having one of the league’s best team batting averages, they are dead last in home runs and walks. I suppose when you sign Luis Arraez, everyone becomes Luis Arraez. Rafael Devers is counted on to be the big middle-of-the-order bat that carries it all, and he’s struggling in a big way.

Cincinnati’s offense is a two-man show at the moment. Elly De La Cruz is chugging along, and Sal Stewart is, so far, the breakout star of 2026. In this series against the Giants, the rookie has crushed three home runs and driven in seven; that is 70% of the team’s offense in these two games. He has the makeup of a special, special hitter.

The rest of Cincinnati’s lineup has to get it going, without question. But sometimes one hitter can carry an entire lineup —and right now, they have two.

Now that we know these teams a bit better, who is going to take this one home?

Giants vs. Reds Pick, Best Bet

There is no avoiding how rough this Giants offense is right now. Burns isn’t perfect, not by a mile, but they have no chance of slap-hitting him around enough to create significant buzz. Roupp is excellent in his own right, but he can only do so much — especially with a suspect bullpen behind him. Cincinnati will finish off the series sweep as they once again smother this feeble Giants offense and get enough timely hits to key a victory.

Best Bet: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline + Under 8.5 Total Runs Same Game Parlay (+234)