Sean Barnard previews Saturday’s WNBA matchup between the Los Angeles Sparks and Connecticut Sun and provides his best pick.
Tipping off as part of today’s three-game WNBA slate, the Los Angeles Sparks will challenge the Connecticut Sun. This is the first matchup between these two sides this year, who hold very different outlooks on the season. The Connecticut Sun enter with a 1-8 record on the year, but they will have the advantage of it being the second half of a back-to-back for the Sparks after they defeated the Washington Mystics last night.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Sparks enter as 3.5-point favorites with -185 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sun hold +154 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 167.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Sparks at Sun matchup.
The Los Angeles Sparks are off to an encouraging start to the season. After improving from 8-32 in 2024 to 21-23 last season, the Sparks hold a 4-3 record to start this season. Their victories have come against the Toronto Tempo, Phoenix Mercury, Las Vegas Aces and Washington Mystics. They enter this matchup on a three-game winning streak. On the season, Los Angeles has gone 3-4 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in six of its seven games played.
Kelsey Plum headlines the production for the Sparks, posting averages of 26.8 points and 6.3 assists per game. However, Plum will miss today’s matchup as she is listed as out with a right ankle injury. Los Angeles brought in Nneka Ogwumike this offseason, and the 10-time All-Star is averaging 16.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. Dearica Hamby contributes 17.9 points, 8.0 rebounds and 3.6 assists of her own, while Erica Wheeler, Rae Burrell, Ariel Atkins and Cameron Brink also play notable roles.
Through their first seven games, the Sparks are averaging 91.6 points per game, which is the second-best rate in the WNBA. Los Angeles also ranks second in offensive rating, first in field-goal percentage and third in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 94.7 points per game against the Sparks, which is the worst mark in the league. They also rank dead last in defensive rating and 14th in opponent field-goal percentage.
The Connecticut Sun limp into this matchup after a 1-8 start to the year. Their lone win came in an 80-78 victory over the Seattle Storm, and they enter the game on a three-game losing streak. On the season, Connecticut has gone 3-6 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in five of the nine games.
The Sun brought in Brittney Griner this offseason, who leads the team with 15.0 points and adds 5.7 rebounds per game. Griner is considered questionable for today’s matchup due to a right rib strain. Aaliyah Edwards will miss the game as she is in WNBA concussion protocol. Aneesah Morrow is posting averages of 11.4 points and 9.7 rebounds per game, while Charlisse Leger-Walker adds 8.1 points per game. Diamond Miller and Kennedy Burke also play key roles.
As a team, the Sun are scoring 74.7 points per game, which ranks last in the league. Connecticut also ranks last in offensive rating, 13th in field-goal percentage and 13th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 88.9 points per game against the Sun, which ranks 13th in the league. They also rank 13th in defensive rating, 13th in opponent field-goal percentage and 13th in opponent three-point percentage.
These teams have not faced each other yet this season, but each hold different outlooks on the year. This is a favorable spot for the Sun, given that the Sparks are playing on the second night of a back-to-back and without Kelsey Plum in the lineup. However, the gap in talent between these two teams is significant, and I am backing the Sparks even without their best player tonight.
This is a Los Angeles offense that ranks second in scoring and offensive rating, and facing off against a Connecticut defense that ranks 13th in points allowed and 13th in defensive rating. The Sparks enter this matchup having scored 92+ points in five straight games. In contrast, the Sun rank dead last in the WNBA in scoring and offensive rating. While the Sparks are allowing more points to opponents than any team in the league, this is a Connecticut offense that has been held to 71 points or fewer in three straight games.
Connecticut has yet to produce any consistent stretch of play together where it has looked anything above one of the bottom-feeders of the WNBA. It has failed to cover the spread in three straight games and has only been favored once this season. The Sun offense lacks enough creation-ability and scoring to keep up with more respectable teams in the league. Even without Plum, expect this to be the case tonight against the Sparks.
The scoring gap is too big to ignore, and the Sparks’ offense without Plum is still far more reliable than the Sun at full strength. The absence of Aaliyah Edwards and potentially Brittney Griner is also more than just a footnote. Expect Los Angeles to have too much talent for the Sun to match and for the 3.5-point spread to be a comfortable number to lay for a pair of teams that are likely to end up quite a bit apart in the standings by the season’s end.
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