Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and best bet for today’s baseball game between the Los Angeles Angels and the Baltimore Orioles.
Baltimore enters Anaheim at 37-42, still chasing its first sustained run of the season. The Orioles are 15-23 away, but their current trip finally has some bite. They just beat the Dodgers 12-1, finishing with 15 hits and four homers. Colton Cowser went deep and drove in four. Taylor Ward, Pete Alonso, and Blaze Alexander also homered. Los Angeles sits 32-47 and 17-20 at Angel Stadium, with Mike Trout and Jorge Soler unavailable. The Angels still have young pop, but the middle looks thinner without those right-handed punishers. This game starts with Kyle Bradish’s strikeout form, Samuel Aldegheri’s command trouble, and Baltimore’s chance to separate late. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Los Angeles Angels and the Baltimore Orioles.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Bradish brings the best current pitching argument into the game. His season line still carries traffic: 4-7, 4.00 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 85 strikeouts, 41 walks, and 11 HR allowed. The recent form is sharper than the full-season line. Bradish just struck out a career-high 12 across 7 2/3 innings against Seattle. He allowed one run, five hits, and two walks in that start. He also owns a 3.15 ERA across his past seven outings. Aldegheri sits 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 13 strikeouts, and 11 walks over 20 innings. His contact profile is passable, but the leash and command are not. Arizona tagged him for six runs in three innings last time out.
Baltimore’s offense still needs careful handling. The Orioles are hitting .226/.305/.362 with a .667 OPS against left-handed pitching. They also have 200 strikeouts across 791 plate appearances in that split. That keeps the team total over 4.5 too expensive. The individual bats create a better run-line case. Alonso leads the club with 18 HR, 52 RBI, a .249/.337/.475 slash, and an .812 OPS. His contact profile screams damage, with 94.3 mph EV, 54.8% hard contact, .375 xwOBA, and 12.2% barrels. Henderson has 16 HR and 38 RBI despite a .223/.294/.421 line. Ward brings a .393 OBP, 74 hits, 49 runs, 17 doubles, and a .350 xwOBA.
The lower and middle portions give Baltimore more paths than the lefty split suggests. Samuel Basallo has 10 HR, 31 RBI, a .258/.321/.447 line, and a .768 OPS. Cowser owns eight HR, 27 RBI, a .328 OBP, and just produced the loudest swing Sunday. Alexander is the hidden hinge. He is hitting .312/.362/.447 with 12 doubles, three HR, 23 RBI, and eight steals. His quality backs up the production: 92.5 mph EV, 46.2% hard contact, .354 wOBA, and .352 xwOBA. Coby Mayo and Tyler O’Neill add volatility, not stability. Mayo has nine HR but a .623 OPS. O’Neill has a .549 OPS and 38 strikeouts in 125 at-bats.
Los Angeles has enough danger to prevent a lazy Angels fade. Zach Neto has 17 HR, 39 RBI, 11 steals, a .327 OBP, .457 SLG, and .784 OPS. His 13.2% barrel rate gives Bradish one major early-count landmine. Guzman has been the recent spark, with three HR, 11 RBI, a .271/.327/.500 line, and an .827 OPS through 12 games. He has also homered in three straight. Jo Adell leads the club with 41 RBI and owns 10 HR, 14 doubles, and 44.8% hard contact. Nolan Schanuel sits at .258/.327/.382 with 13 doubles. Logan O’Hoppe’s .679 OPS is modest, but his 11.4% barrel rate can ruin one mistake.
The Angels’ problem is depth after the active threats. Trout’s .394 OBP, .472 SLG, .866 OPS, and 17 HR are missing. Soler’s nine HR and right-handed power are missing too. Jose Siri has been productive in a smaller sample, with a .297/.352/.531 line and .883 OPS. The rest gets thin quickly. Christian Moore has opened .167/.154/.167 with eight strikeouts in 12 at-bats. Donovan Walton sits at .210/.297/.333. O’Hoppe has 43 strikeouts in 164 at-bats, and Adell still carries chase risk. Bradish’s walks make one Angels cluster possible. Baltimore’s run-line case survives because the Angels need more than one burst.
Angel Stadium should play fair, with mild temperatures, clear conditions, and modest wind out. The under 9 has statistical logic, but both bullpens create late volatility. Angels team total under 3.5 fits Bradish’s form, yet Neto, Guzman, Adell, and O’Hoppe make that ticket fragile. Orioles ML is the correct side at a bad price. The run line pays for the better script. Baltimore has the sharper starter form, the louder right-handed power, the deeper active lineup, and the weaker Angels bullpen target.
Best bet: Orioles -1.5 +101, playable to even money.
Projected score: Orioles 6, Angels 3.
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
此内容由惯性聚合(RSS阅读器)自动聚合整理，仅供阅读参考。 原文来自 — 版权归原作者所有。