Just over a month ago, Barcelona had a chance for a remontada against Atlético Madrid after falling behind 4-0 in the Copa del Rey semifinals, and it nearly pulled off the stunner, winning 3-0 in the second leg at the Camp Nou.

Its task will be nearly as gargantuan on Tuesday afternoon, as it will travel to the Estadio Metropolitano to take on Los Colchoneros on their home turf, needing to overturn a 2-0 deficit if it wants to advance to the Champions League semifinals for the second consecutive season. The match will begin at 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local), and the winner will go on to face either Arsenal or Sporting Lisbon.

Barça is a -125 favorite to win the return leg at DraftKings Sportsbook (+260 to advance to the semifinals), and Atleti is +275 (-350 to advance). There are +275 odds that the teams will draw, which would send Los Colchoneros through.

Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona prediction, pick

The Blaugrana were heavy favorites entering the opening leg, but everything unraveled in the 44th minute, when Pau Cubarsí brought down Giuliano Simeone on a reckless challenge, earning himself a red and Atleti a free kick. Julián Álvarez converted the chance with a wonder goal, and Alexander Sørloth sealed the result with a sitter off of a Matteo Ruggieri cross. The tie isn’t remotely over just yet; Barcelona already beat Los Colchoneros by two goals in a December La Liga match, and has been the far better side in both La Liga and the Champions League. Still, Atleti has the upper hand, and with Arsenal looking shaky on the other quadrant of the bracket, its dreams of its first UCL final since 2016 look realistic.

Los Colchoneros might quite be safe just yet, but one rocket off the boot of either Álvarez or Sørloth could make a huge difference. Sørloth has done most of the damage in La Liga, leading the team with 10 goals in 18 starts domestically, but Álvarez has led the way in the Champions League, netting nine times in 12 starts. Thanks to its strike partnership, Atleti has been solid in the attack, ranking 12th in expected goals per match and fourth in goals per match. Los Colchoneros were particularly efficient with their chances in the first leg, putting three of their five shots on target. They completed a solid 85.7% of their passes, which was critical in breaking Barcelona’s high press. Atlético Madrid was also stout in defense, limiting the Blaugrana to just 1.1 expected goals on their 18 shots and posting an impressive 73.7% tackle success rate. It still allowed seven shots on target, and it hasn’t been great overall throughout the competition, but if Jan Oblak can play as well as backup Juan Musso did in the first leg, it would be enough for Los Colchoneros to get the win.

Barcelona surely won’t go away quietly. The Blaugrana have a combination of talent and depth in the front line unrivaled by any other team in Spain, even without Raphinha. Six different Barça players have scored at least 12 goals in all competitions, and four have contributed at least 10 assists. As a result of their depth and clinical finishing, the Blaugrana have scored the third-most Champions League goals per 90 minutes. Despite their loss in the first leg, they produced consistent pressure on Atleti’s net, only to be thwarted by Musso and by a Yamal offsides call that overturned Marcus Rashford’s opener. The issue is that Barcelona has been gettable in the back, ranking just 17th in the Champions League in goals against per match, and while it’s been unstoppable in both ground and aerial duels — trends that continued in the first leg — it allowed opponents to produce shots in the box at among the highest rates. The Blaugrana didn’t tackle well in the first leg, and Joan García saved only one of the three shots on target he faced. They’ll need to do a better job of protecting García on Tuesday, which could be difficult with Cubarsí suspended. Ronald Araújo, who has come in and out of favor with the team over the past two seasons, will have to step up, and while he has the talent, he isn’t consistent.

Given that Barcelona produced more and better chances against Atlético Madrid in the first leg despite playing a man down for the entire second half, it should still threaten to turn around the deficit. The issue is that all Los Colchoneros need to effectively ice the tie is one goal, and that would just require the Blaugrana to slip up on the offsides trap once. I expect Barcelona to keep putting pressure towards an equalizer, but for that effort to come up one goal shy in the end. 2-1 in the leg for the Blaugrana but 3-2 on aggregate for Atleti sounds about right.

Best Bet: Barcelona 2+ Goals, Barcelona 6+ Corners (-125)