The task for the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round of the playoffs was simple: survive long enough for Luka Dončić to come back, then hope for the Slovenian to carry them to victory. They managed to win the series against the Houston Rockets without Dončić, but they’ll still need to manage without him for at least another game against a much more difficult opponent, the West’s top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder, who swept the Phoenix Suns.

Game 1 will begin tonight at 8:40 p.m. ET in Oklahoma City.

Both teams have one major player out with injury; Dončić remains without a concrete timeline to return to play for the Lakers, while the Thunder’s Jalen Williams (hamstring) is week-to-week.

Even without Williams, Oklahoma City is a 15.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-1100 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 213.5. Los Angeles is +700 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this tone-setting game and offer a prediction.

Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder preview, prediction

The Lakers were able to oust the Rockets thanks to LeBron James’ turning back the clock; he reached the 25-point threshold in four of the six games, averaging 23.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 8.3 assists per game for the series as a whole. He received just enough help from the rest of Los Angeles’ role players, with Marcus Smart and Luke Kennard each contributing a pair of 20-point games before falling off later on in the series and Deandre Ayton snagging at least 16 boards in each of the final two games. Smart, Kennard, and Rui Hachimura each shot over 40% from beyond the arc for the series. Los Angeles’ ceiling could be even higher if Austin Reaves, who somewhat struggled across two games after returning from his oblique strain, is closer to full health.

Beating the Thunder would be a lot to ask for, though. They were utterly dominant in the first round, winning every game by at least 10 points, and after a slow Game 1, presumed MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turned it on, averaging 36.7 points per game across the final three games of the series. Additionally, Chet Holmgren was a menace defensively, averaging 1.3 steals and 2.0 blocks per game, and both Alex Caruso’s and Ajay Mitchell’s jumpers were falling. Oklahoma City is so deep that Jared McCain, a 39.1% three-point shooter whom it acquired at the trade deadline, and Jaylin Williams, a versatile big who recorded three triple-doubles last season, barely played.

Lakers at Thunder pick, best bet

The Thunder’s Plan A is always to shut down the interior behind its twin towers of Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, and so far these playoffs, it’s managed to do just that, limiting opponents to a playoffs-low 19.5 attempts within five feet and just a 59.0% field goal percentage on such looks. They’ve arguably even gotten unlucky defensively, as they forced the most short midrange jumpers in the first round but allowed Phoenix to convert at an absurd 70.2% rate, 21.3 percentage points higher than any other team. Either way, Oklahoma City should be effective against the Lakers, who have struggled to get downhill but were the league’s best finishing team during the regular season. Plus, Los Angeles was among the worst rim-protecting teams during the regular season, with Ayton ranking in just the 40th percentile in rim points saved per 100 possessions, and the Thunder finished well both in the regular season and the first round. All in all, Oklahoma City scored 5.3 more points in the paint per game than the Lakers and allowed 9.1 fewer throughout the first round.

Winning the rebounding battle will be key for both teams. Los Angeles won it thrice and lost it thrice in the first round, though Game 6 was the only game in which it won both the rebounding battle and the game. The Thunder, meanwhile, won it thrice and lost it once in their first-round sweep, which was an improvement relative to the regular season, when they ranked just 22nd in total rebounding percentage. But even though the Lakers present a bigger challenge on the boards than the Suns did, Oklahoma City should still dominate in transition, given that it averaged among the most points off of turnovers during both the regular season and playoffs and Los Angeles was the most turnover-prone team in the first round. There also might be a lot of trips to the charity stripe for both teams this series; while both the Lakers and the Thunder are relatively disciplined, they’re also both elite at drawing contact. Dončić led the league in free throw attempts per game, with Gilgeous-Alexander third, and Reaves would’ve ranked 10th if he’d played enough minutes to qualify.

If Los Angeles doesn’t have the interior in which to operate, its shooting will be key, and there, it’s at least comparable to Oklahoma City. Kennard led the league in three-point percentage for the third time in five seasons, and during the regular season, Dončić, Hachimura, and Reaves all made their threes at a rate significantly higher than expected based on the shot quality, while Gilgeous-Alexander was the Thunder’s only above-average shooter. The issue is that Oklahoma City has produced significantly higher-quality shots, attempting the second-most wide-open threes per game during the first round and the fifth-most during the regular season, while the Lakers attempted the fourth-fewest during the regular season and the second-fewest in the first round. The defending champs have also been better at closing out on opposing shooters, giving up almost the same number of wide-open threes during the regular season while contesting more shots overall. Los Angeles could also struggle to generate good looks without the gravity that Dončić provides, as he ranked fourth in the league in overall gravity during the regular season. Kennard has done a good job making up for some of that during these playoffs, but he’s no Dončić.

In theory, the Lakers’ solid rebounding and shooting should be enough for them to take advantage of the Thunder’s few weaknesses and at least cover the spread, but they’ve simply had no answer for Oklahoma City this season. Gilgeous-Alexander played in three of the teams’ four regular season games, and they were decided by 29, 33, and 36 points. Even in the game in which SGA sat out, the Thunder managed a nine-point win. None of the defenders JJ Redick tried on Gilgeous-Alexander (Jake LaRavia, Reaves, and Hachimura) was particularly effective, and he gave up just two points combined against LaRavia, Hachimura, and Kennard. James shot just two-for-five during the regular season when guarded by Luguentz Dort, and Reaves shot a combined one-for-nine against Mitchell and Cason Wallace. This could be a completely different series if Dončić eventually returns, but Oklahoma City’s athleticism and swarming style is simply too much for this iteration of the Lakers.

Best bet: Oklahoma City Thunder -15.5 (-110)