
























Zach Thompson details his top home run props for Saturday’s MLB slate, including bets for Willson Contreras, Shohei Ohtani and Ozzie Albies.
Major League Baseball has a very busy first Saturday in May with all 30 teams on the schedule. While every team is taking the field at some point, the conditions across the country vary significantly from place to place. Some environments will be very favorable to pitching with the wind blowing in, while others will be much more offense-friendly with warmer temperatures and the wind blowing out. Both Coors Field and Sutter Health Park are in play, and some very hittable pitchers are taking the mound in a few matchups. DraftKings Sportsbook has plenty of juicy home run props to consider for this Saturday, so let’s pinpoint a few of my best bets.
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate that can also build your bankroll quickly. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or choose to combine them in parlay or round robin formats to maximize the potential payout.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday: Angel Martinez, JJ Wetherholt and Jac Caglianone.
We’re going with three young rising stars with pop on Saturday’s slate. In fact, all three of my player selections today are under 25 years old and come with odds over +450. We’ll start in the late-afternoon matchup out West in Sacramento, where the temperatures will be over 70 degrees with the wind blowing out. The Guardians won Game 1 of the series on Friday with an 8-5 comeback. Martinez came off the bench in that game and went 0-for-2 with an RBI. He’ll probably be back in the starting lineup on Saturday, though, possibly even hitting second in the order with lefty Jacob Lopez getting the call for the A’s. Lopez has allowed four homers this season in six games, with righties hitting .292 with a .389 wOBA against him.
Martinez has hit five homers this year, with four homers coming off southpaws like Lopez with a .270 ISO in the splits. He’s also been better on the road than at home, with a .278 average and .358 wOBA. Three of his homers this season have come in his last nine games and he has a 16% barrel rate over that span, boosting his barrel rate over 10% for the season.
The Cardinals host the Dodgers this weekend, and on Saturday, they’ll take on Roki Sasaki. The hurler has had a rocky start to the season and has the highest HR/9 rate of all the probable pitchers on the board. Sasaki has given up seven smashes in his last four games, including three to the Cubs in his last start. He has given up a 47.5% hard-hit rate and 10.2% barrel rate over those four starts. Most of his troubles have come away from Dodger Stadium, and on the road, he has a 8.38 ERA and 7.59 FIP.
The Cardinals will look to continue Sasaki’s struggles, so one of the best values on the board in St. Louis this Saturday is leadoff rookie JJ Wetherholt. The 23-year-old lefty has seven homers on the season with five coming against righties, five coming at home, and four in his last seven games. Wetherholt has a 59.3% hard-hit rate and 18.5% barrel rate in those seven contests, and he has been a very impressive piece of the Cardinals’ surprising start to the season. The fact that the odds for his home run props are still almost 5:1 makes them a great value for this Saturday.
Since he usually hits leadoff, Wetherholt gets extra at-bats, especially against the starter as the lineup flips. He’s in a solid spot to deliver on these props if he keeps swinging such a hot stick.
Caglianone’s bat has started to come to life over the last week, so the 23-year-old lefty could be ready to turn the corner and start the breakout many have been waiting for. He was the No. 6 pick in the 2024 MLB Draft and hit 20 homers in 66 minor-league games in 2025. He hit seven homers after his promotion to the majors last year, but he had a disappointing .157 batting average. His batting average is up to .253 this season, but his power had vanished until recently.
He had zero homers in his first 19 games this season, but he has connected on three homers in his last nine games, including going yards on Friday night in Seattle.
Caglianone and the Royals will face Emerson Hancock in the final game of the day. While Hancock has been solid overall, he ha allowed seven homers in six starts, including four to lefties like Caglianone.
此内容由惯性聚合(RSS阅读器)自动聚合整理,仅供阅读参考。 原文来自 — 版权归原作者所有。