The NL Central is a bloodbath. After Pittsburgh’s victory on Wednesday night, the entire division is above .500. The bloodbath continues on Thursday as these two division rivals face off once again.

First pitch is set for 1:15 p.m. ET. The Pirates are -126 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, while a Cardinals upset is priced at +104. The game total is set at O/U eight runs.

Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Pirates vs. Cardinals game.

Pirates vs. Cardinals Preview

First things first, let’s get to know these starting pitchers.

Braxton Ashcraft steps to the bump for the Pirates. One of Pittsburgh’s many excellent pitching prospects, he broke into the big leagues last year and performed admirably. Now he’s getting a full-time turn in the rotation, and looking like a star in the making.

The big righty has a 3.09 ERA through 55.1 innings this year, with 56 strikeouts to 14 walks. He’s backed up by a Baseball Savant page so red it would make Joseph Stalin blush. Elite chase rates, lots of swings and misses, and a lot of ground balls. The fastball generates tons of swings and misses, while the breaking balls get lots of soft contact. It’s an excellent formula for the Pittsburgh starter.

Opposite him is Dustin May. The right-hander is not enjoying his stay in St. Louis so far; through nine starts, the 28-year-old has a 4.81 ERA. He’s not putting up any stats that make you think positive regression is coming: the hard contact is constant, he’s not missing bats, and the ground ball rate should be much higher considering his off-speed/breaking ball arsenal. With the Cardinals surprisingly in the playoff race, the leash for May in the rotation may not be very long.

Both offenses have been a pleasant surprise. Their wRC+ marks, as a whole, are above average, and a good portion of that feels sustainable. Brandon Lowe and Ryan O’Hearn have been huge additions to this Pittsburgh lineup, and they’ve showcased impressive depth. Six of their nine regular hitters have an OPS+ of 108 or greater. The Cardinals are a bit more star-dependent, but Jordan Walker’s breakout, coupled with JJ Wetherholt hitting the ground running, has made a huge difference. Alec Burleson and Iván Herrera are providing big at-bats as well. It’s a lot of reasons for the Tarps Off section to get loud.

Now that we know these teams a bit better, who is going to take this one home?

Pirates vs. Cardinals Pick, Best Bet

It’s very difficult to ignore the starting pitching gap here. Ashcraft is getting better and better with every trip to the bump, while it feels like May is only getting worse. St. Louis’ offense can’t be counted out, but I expect Pittsburgh to take an early lead before handing things over to a surprisingly robust bullpen. You can count on the Jolly Roger flying after this one.

Best Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline (-126)