Griffin Wong gives you a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Houston Astros.
The 162-game baseball season offers plenty of opportunities for teams that have gotten off course to quickly correct, so regular season losing streaks aren’t usually a cause for concern.
Last summer, the Los Angeles Dodgers had a stretch of 10 losses in 12 games (bisected by the All-Star break), but those midsummer woes don’t factor into the story of the season, as they went on to win their second consecutive World Series title. Their current run of four defeats in five will be an equal non-story if the Dodgers win again, even if they lose at 8:10 p.m. ET tonight in the opener of a three-game road series against the Houston Astros.
Los Angeles will have just the right man on the mound to continue the rebound, World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Steven Okert will be the Astros’ opener, with Ryan Weiss potentially in line to serve as a bulk reliever.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
In the grand scheme of it all, despite their recent stagnation, the Dodgers can hardly complain about their start to the season. They still lead the NL West at 21-13 and have the third-best run differential in all of baseball (plus-63). The aspects of Los Angeles’ roster that carried it to another World Series title last fall have been dominant once again: its rotation ranks second in the league in ERA and its offense second in OPS. It’s gotten plenty of contributions from up and down its roster, from two-time reigning MVP Shohei Ohtani — who won NL Pitcher of the Month in March/April — to utility man Dalton Rushing, who actually ranks third on the team in offensive WAR and has a 1.221 OPS in just 57 plate appearances. Despite the bullpen’s inevitable struggles, the Dodgers have gotten pretty unlucky, as their run differential suggests that they should be 24-10.
Houston has been both unlucky and bad. The Astros have the run differential of a 16-19 team, but they’re just 14-21 and have had both a seven-game losing streak and a stretch of seven losses in nine this season. Their pitching has been disastrous; despite having a top-half rotation and bullpen last season, they rank second-to-last in rotation ERA and dead last in bullpen ERA, though some of it should eventually improve once Hunter Brown and Tatsuya Imai return from the injured list. Houston’s pitching woes have overshadowed what has been a tremendous season for its offense; so far this season, the Astros rank third in OPS, with Yordan Alvarez trailing only Aaron Judge and Munetaka Murakami in homers and Christian Walker bouncing back from his brutal 2025 campaign with a .975 OPS so far. Carlos Correa has contributed 1.4 WAR as well.
By his standards, Yamamoto hasn’t been great this season. He ranks just fourth among Los Angeles’ starters with a 2.87 ERA, and he’s the only starter besides Roki Sasaki without a winning record. He’s also given up three earned runs in each of his last two starts. But “bad by Yamamoto standards” still means elite: he ranks in the 92nd percentile in pitching run value. While Statcast paints a slightly more negative picture of him with just a 3.98 expected ERA, he ranks in at least the 36th percentile in every stat, and the velocities and spin rates on his pitches also haven’t significantly changed since last season, so his issues haven’t been mechanical. Houston’s offense should help mitigate some of his relative weaknesses; he gives up a few too many fly balls, but the Astros have an above-average ground ball rate, and while he has just a 42nd-percentile barrel rate, they haven’t hit barrels at a rate as high as might be expected by their overall offensive output. Plus, the splits are in Yamamoto’s favor: he has a career 2.16 ERA on the road, and Houston has been somewhat worse at home. He’s also never given up more than two earned runs in three consecutive starts.
Either way, the Dodgers should have a much easier time getting to Okert and Weiss than the Astros will Yamamoto. While Okert has done an excellent job limiting hard hits, which could keep Los Angeles’ powerful lineup in check, he’s also struggled mightily to induce chases or walks and sports just a 4.20 ERA and 4.44 expected ERA. Plus, he struggles enough to produce grounders as is, and the Dodgers have found the launch angle sweet spot at the second-highest frequency. They could be even better if Weiss indeed pitches in bulk relief; he ranks in just the third percentile in pitching run value and the 10th percentile in barrel rate. In fact, the only thing Weiss does well is generate strikeouts, and Los Angeles has struck out at a below-average rate this season. Additionally, while Houston’s staff as a whole has been slightly better at home, the Dodgers have been more effective offensively on the road.
The Astros’ pitching staff might not continue to be the worst in baseball for the entire season, but given their injury situation and the poor underlying numbers that both Okert and Weiss have posted, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them struggle tonight. Despite two mediocre outings in a row, Yamamoto has earned the benefit of the doubt.
Houston does walk a decent amount, drawing the eighth-most free passes so far this season, but Yamamoto has exhibited exceptional control, walking one or fewer batters in each of his first four starts of the season. Though he imploded slightly with four walks in his most recent start against the Miami Marlins, the Astros chase far more frequently than the Marlins do.
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