Everyone NL East club other than the Braves currently sits below .500. That means head to head matchups are more important than ever for the rest of this division. The Nationals (13-17) have shown some promise, thanks to their potent lineup. However, it was the free-falling Mets (10-19) that picked up a much-needed 8-0 win on Tuesday. Can New York make it two in a row tonight?

The Mets are favorites (-163) over the Nationals, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between Washington and New York on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Nationals vs. Mets prediction, preview

As previously mentioned, Washington’s offense (yesterday’s performance aside) is legit. CJ Abrams has been terrific to kick off 2026. Through 29 games, the shortstop is slashing .267/.377/.505 with seven home runs, 21 RBIs and five steals. However, he’s only notched two hits over his last 24 at-bats (.080 BA). It’s a similar story for James Wood, one of the league’s brightest young stars. Despite a mediocre .237 batting average, the slugger has already mashed ten homers en route to a 169 wRC+. Fellow outfielder Joey Wiemer, slashing .320/.414/.580, also deserves a mention. As a unit, the Nats rank fourth in baseball with 156 runs scored.

On the flip side, pitching has been an issue for years in DC. That’s especially true with former staff ace MacKenzie Gore now with the Rangers. Tonight, it’ll be Cade Cavalli toeing the slab for Washington. Through 24.2 innings of work, the right-hander owns a 4.01 ERA and 28 strikeouts. However, he’s been fortunate; the third-year pro’s 1.66 WHIP is asking for trouble. On the flip side, Cavalli has yet to surrender a home run. There’s a decent chance that continues against a Mets squad that ranks 26th in the league with 22 dingers.

Speaking of New York’s offense, it’s been rough in the Big Apple. To be fair, an extended absence for Juan Soto certainly didn’t help this new-look lineup. With that being said, fellow All-Star Francisco Lindor is now on the injured list with a calf strain. Tuesday’s eight-run output was a welcome sight, but it’s difficult to forget what we’ve seen from this group recently. Prior to last night, the Mets had scored a mere 29 runs over their last ten games. Cavalli’s most used off speed pitch is the knuckle curve (23.4%). This season, New York is batting just .154 against that offering.

Fortunately for the Mets, one of their better pitchers in David Peterson is on the hill this evening. With that being said, the southpaw has looked rough to start the season (5.06 ERA, 1.65 WHIP). Still, the former All-Star’s 3.76 FIP suggests better days are ahead. That could be the case against a squad Peterson has plenty of success against. The 30-year-old owns a minuscule 1.13 ERA over his last seven meetings with Washington. Left-handed hitters Wood (.231 BA) and Abrams (.150 BA) have struggled against Peterson, although Wiemer sports a .667 batting average.

Nationals vs. Mets pick, best bet

The Nationals, despite impressive hitting stats, have scored just 14 total runs over their last five matchups. That doesn’t bode well against Peterson, a veteran that seems to have their number. For the home team, one good performance at the plate doesn’t erase a month’s worth of futility. Cavalli, WHIP aside, is one of the better arms in Washington’s rotation as well. At pitcher-friendly Citi Field, expect runs to be at a premium on Wednesday.

Best Bet: Nationals vs. Mets under 7.5 runs (-122)