Griffin Wong gives his best bet, pick and prediction for Friday’s FIFA World Cup match between Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia.
There are four debutants at this World Cup. Through two games, Uzbekistan and Jordan have not yet picked up a point, with the Chivalrous Ones officially eliminated, and Curaçao picked up a point but also suffered the joint-most lopsided defeat of the tournament. Cabo Verde has been the standout, drawing with both Spain and Uruguay, and it has a reasonable chance to advance to the knockout stage, effectively needing just a point against Saudi Arabia at 8 p.m. ET in Houston.
The Green Falcons are still alive as well; they might still finish third with a draw, depending on the result between La Roja and the Celeste, but two points and a poor goal difference is highly unlikely to be enough for advancement. Saudi Arabia really needs to win.
The Blue Sharks are +150 favorites to claim the pivotal three points at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Green Falcons are +190. There are +240 odds that the teams will share the points.
Below, I’ll break down this match between the Group H bottom-feeders and provide my favorite bet.
Mathematically, Cape Verde still has a chance to win Group H with a win if Uruguay defeats Spain and doesn’t better the Blue Sharks’ goal difference or match its goal difference in a higher-scoring result. Even advancement in second, which would require wins by Cape Verde and La Roja, would have been considered a massive success at the start of the tournament, given that the Blue Sharks were widely expected to finish last. As for Saudi Arabia, one point from games against Spain and the Celeste should be considered a success, though its negative-four goal difference isn’t ideal. Regardless, if they win, the 2034 hosts will have almost certainly done enough to progress to the knockout stages for the first time since 1994, the last time this tournament was held in the United States.
Cape Verde’s defense was the main driver behind its draw against Spain, as goalkeeper Vozinha became an instant celebrity by making seven saves. All in all, defense has been the Blue Sharks’ stronger side; though they’ve allowed 4.42 expected goals’ worth of chances and the fifth-most shots through two matches, only 56.82% of those shots have come in the box, and they rank second in both clearances and interceptions as well as fourth in blocks. Cape Verde has also won 59.3% of its ground duels, the highest mark in the competition, and it’s committed just five fouls, seven fewer than any other team, the combination of which is a testament to Diney and Pico Lopes’ discipline and skill. However, the Blue Sharks don’t have much moving forward, as they’ve produced the sixth-fewest expected goals while putting just five total shots on target, including Kevin Pina’s absolute screamer from well outside the box. They’ve completed their passes at among the lowest rates, both overall and in the final third, and they’ve made the 13th-most errors leading to a shot. Sidney Lopes Cabral will be suspended after accumulating two yellow cards, which could be problematic; the well-rounded Benfica man leads the team in fouls drawn, crosses attempted, and interceptions. If Cape Verde is to win, it’ll need FCSB’s João Paulo Fernandes to play a similarly aggressive role in the attack as Cabral.
The Green Falcons were also impressive defensively in their opening match, but they were less impressive against Spain. Saudi Arabia has allowed 4.02 expected goals’ worth of chances, 0.40 fewer than the Blue Sharks have, but Mohammed Al-Owais limited Uruguay to just one goal while saving nine shots and had a rough effort against La Roja. The Green Falcons have also allowed five more shots and nine more shots on target than Cape Verde on a slightly higher shot-in-box percentage, recording eight fewer tackles, six fewer interceptions, 16 fewer recoveries, five fewer blocks, and 15 fewer clearances than the West African side, though they have won aerial duels at a higher rate and forced more high turnovers. The issue is on the other side of the ball; Saudi Arabia arguably has even less offensive talent than the Blue Sharks, managing the second-fewest expected goals on the fourth-fewest shots, and it’s been heavily reliant on set pieces, which Cape Verde doesn’t allow many of. While the Green Falcons have passed the ball better than the Blue Sharks, it’s not by much, and they’ve made the third-most errors leading to a shot. They have an advantage in that no player will miss the game due to yellow card accumulation, but they’ve been equally sloppy.
Both teams have grown accustomed to sitting back, as they rank eighth-to-last and fourth-to-last in average possession, but each will have to send men forward more than they’re used to. If there is a more aggressive side, I expect it to be Saudi Arabia, especially since a draw would likely see Cape Verde through, but it wouldn’t be a massive surprise to see the Blue Sharks pull out the more aggressive 4-2-3-1 that they used to upset Cameroon in African qualifying. Neither team’s attackers have shown much in this tournament, and in club competition, the Green Falcons’ forwards have better stats but Cape Verde’s play against higher levels of competition. To me, it comes down to the goalkeepers and their experience in major tournaments, and while Al-Owais has played a prior World Cup and performed solidly, Vozinha ranked third in save percentage in the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations as the Blue Sharks made the quarterfinals after topping a group featuring Egypt and Ghana. This tournament’s hero should step up for his country again, potentially setting up a date with Argentina.
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