The Minnesota Timberwolves did the hard part, building a 3-1 lead over the Denver Nuggets with a chance to advance to the second round, where the San Antonio Spurs await. But the easy part — winning that fourth game — still eludes Minnesota, and the task won’t come without its challenges, as the Timberwolves will be without Donte DiVincenzo (torn Achilles) and Anthony Edwards (knee sprain), both of whom went down in that Game 4 victory on Saturday.

Without Edwards and DiVincenzo, it’ll be incumbent on Julius Randle to step up as the top scoring option. He did so in Game 5, dropping 27 points, but his five turnovers and five fouls proved costly in a game that Denver ultimately won by 12.

Minnesota is a 6.5-point underdog for tonight’s clash at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set to 225.5. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bet centered around the lefty.

Best Julius Randle Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook

Julius Randle 6+ Assists (+136)

The Nuggets will have the best playmaking big on the floor — no living big in history can compare to Nikola Jokić on that front — but Randle can do a pretty solid approximation at his peak. His teams had never unleashed him much as a passer until he averaged 6.0 assists per game with the New York Knicks in 2020-21, and his playmaking hadn’t been a focal point of the Timberwolves’ offense until the first two rounds of the 2025 playoffs, when he averaged 5.9 assists per game and dished out 23 across a two-game stretch in the second round. This regular season, he had at least six dimes 33 times in 79 starts.

Meanwhile, although Denver has been more defensively sound during these playoffs than it was during the regular season, giving up 4.3 fewer points per 100 possessions, it still ranks in the bottom half among first-round participants in defensive rating. Additionally, because both of these teams play relatively quickly, the Nuggets have allowed the second-most assists per game. Because Randle has predominantly drawn matchups against two of Denver’s better defenders (Spencer Jones, who ranks in the 76th percentile in points saved per 100 possessions, and Aaron Gordon, who ranks in the 85th percentile in that stat), he might be incentivized to kick it to teammates with easier matchups. He had at least six assists in three of the teams’ four regular season meetings.

Julius Randle U0.5 Steals (+121)

As Randle’s offensive role grows, his defensive intensity could wane. He hasn’t been very impactful either through steals or blocks this series, recording just a steal in Game 5 and a block in Game 3 after ending the regular season on two games without a steal. If his recent form is any indication, then, this prop represents excellent value. Edwards and DiVincenzo both rank above the league median in deflections per 100 possessions, so without them, Randle can’t afford to gamble as much on defense, lest he get blown by and put too much on Rudy Gobert’s plate.

In general, the Nuggets are a bad team to rack up steals against. During the regular season, Denver gave up the seventh-fewest steals, and so far this series, they’ve allowed the fourth-fewest among the 16 playoff participants. It also attempted the fewest drives and a below-average number of passes during the regular season, limiting steal opportunities. Plus, Randle has mostly been guarding Gordon and Jones, neither of whom attempts many passes or has a major ball-handling responsibility.