Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and best bet for today’s baseball game between the Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros.
The Astros and Rangers arrive at Thursday’s finale with the same kind of uneven record, but the series has started to tilt toward Houston’s hottest bat and Texas’ thinning lineup. The Astros are 25-32, the Rangers are 25-30, and Houston has taken two of the first three in Arlington while scoring 20 runs across the series. Texas answered once with a 10-7 win, but the surrounding games have belonged to Houston’s sharper run prevention and Yordan Alvarez’s demolition act. The roof is expected to be closed at Globe Life Field, which keeps the run environment controlled, but this matchup still has enough late-game volatility to make the favorite price feel heavy. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Nathan Eovaldi gives Texas the cleanest argument. He has a 3.65 ERA, has worked at least seven innings in four straight starts and already shut Houston down earlier this month with seven scoreless innings and eight strikeouts. His pitch mix has also shifted into a more difficult version of himself: fewer traditional fastballs, more splitters, cutters and curveballs, and enough sequencing to keep lineups from sitting on one lane. The contact profile keeps the door open, though. Eovaldi has allowed an 89.3 mph average exit velocity, 41.5% hard-hit rate, 8.0% barrel rate and .320 xwOBA, and some of his broader contact indicators have been louder depending on the sample. That is a dangerous way to live against Alvarez in this form.
Alvarez is the center of the game. He went 3-for-4 with two solo homers Wednesday, including the go-ahead shot in the eighth, and now has five HR in his last three games, 20 HR on the season and 25 career regular-season homers against Texas. His underlying profile is even more terrifying than the box score: 94.3 mph average exit velocity, 52.5% hard-hit rate, 18.2% barrel rate, .440 wOBA and .487 xwOBA. Houston is still playing without José Altuve and Carlos Correa, so the lineup is not at full weight, but the current top five has enough support around him. Jeremy Peña leads off, Isaac Paredes brings pull-side power in front of Alvarez, Christian Walker protects him, and Taylor Trammell has been giving the lower-middle a jolt after going 2-for-3 Wednesday and hitting .371 with a .922 OPS during this stretch.
Spencer Arrighetti is the swing piece for Houston. The surface line is excellent: 6-1 with a 1.32 ERA, and he already carved up Texas earlier this month with 7.1 innings of one-hit ball. His May run has been the kind of stretch that changes how this matchup is priced. The warning signs are obvious enough to respect. Arrighetti’s 4.77 xERA, 14.7% walk rate and .343 xwOBA allowed point to command risk under the shiny run prevention, and a patient Texas top half can create traffic if he is behind in counts. Joc Pederson is especially dangerous after three HR over the last two games, including two solo shots Wednesday. Brandon Nimmo, Josh Jung, Jake Burger and Evan Carter give Texas enough punch to punish free passes.
The difference is lineup depth. The Rangers are still operating without Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford and Josh Smith, and that matters when Arrighetti’s biggest flaw is the walk. Texas has the bats to make him uncomfortable, but the lineup does not have its full mistake-punishing chain behind Pederson and Jung. The Rangers are also 1-5 over their last six games, with seven of their 13 runs in this series coming in one outburst. Houston has not been flawless, either, especially with Josh Hader still out, but Enyel De Los Santos handled the final five outs cleanly Wednesday and the Astros have enough late-inning shape to keep this from becoming a simple Eovaldi-length game.
The under has a case with the roof closed, Eovaldi’s recent workload and Arrighetti’s first matchup against this lineup. The total still feels tight with Alvarez and Pederson both swinging like one mistake can change the entire night. Houston’s first-five team total is tempting because Eovaldi’s contact profile gives the Astros a path to two early runs, but his recent length and earlier seven-scoreless outing against this same lineup make the full-game side more appealing. Texas is favored because Eovaldi is dependable and the Astros’ record is ugly. Houston has the better current series shape, the most dangerous hitter on the field, enough top-five support and a plus-money price against a depleted Rangers order. Best bet: Astros ML (+113). Playable to even money.
Final score: Astros 5, Rangers 4.
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