The Edmonton Oilers made back-to-back Stanley Cup Final appearances in the last two years. Just a season removed from that feat, they’re now on the brink of elimination… at the hands of the Anaheim Ducks. With this series tilting 3-1 in favor of the latter, tonight’s matchup brings an elimination-game environment to Rogers Place as the action shifts back to Edmonton.

Here’s a Ducks vs. Oilers Game 5 prediction and pick for tonight’s NHL Playoffs matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Ducks vs. Oilers Game 5 prediction, preview

It’s time for our scheduled Ducks vs. Oilers Goal Counter Update (trademark not pending)! In Game 4, these teams combined for another seven goals, bringing our series total to 35 across four contests. Over three regular-season matchups, these teams also combined for 28 goals. The grand cumulative total for these seven games against each other now sits at 63. That means the average number of pucks put into the back of the net when these squads square off is nine.

Can you guess what the best bet for tonight will be?

There’s been a ridiculous amount of offense in this series and very little defense. It’s been really fun, but the Ducks are probably having a much better time after accounting for 20 of the 35 total goals and taking a 3-1 series lead. How has that been possible for a team that had a -15 goal differential during the regular season?

The contributions of key skaters like Jackson LaCombe and his postseason-leading eight points as well as Mikael Granlund, Leo Carlsson and more deserve plenty of credit. They’ve truly risen to the occasion in a series that called for offense first and foremost against a team that was great at putting the puck in the net during the regular season.

It’s also worth mentioning that the Oilers’ lack of goaltending is one of the primary reasons they’re down 3-1, but there’s more blame to go around on this roster. Connor Ingram will start Game 5 despite a 4.70 GAA and .849 SV% because frankly, Edmonton doesn’t have better options available. Tristan Jarry let four shots between the pipes in Game 4 and had a miserable .858 SV% after being traded here in the regular season. Those guys don’t give their team much of a chance, especially after allowing six goals off rebounds thus far, but the defensive scheme has collapsed as well. The Ducks are second in high-danger chances among all playoff teams and the Oilers are fifth-to-last in blocked shots.

Here’s the kicker. Edmonton superstar and reigning Art Ross Trophy winner Connor McDavid hasn’t been totally healthy ever since suffering a lower-body injury in Game 2. It’s clearly impacted his play with just four points across four games, and while hockey players tend to play through just about every injury possible, he’s a game-time decision for Game 5 tonight. Without him, the situation grows even more dire.

Ducks vs. Oilers Game 5 pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Oilers as -155 favorites to win at home on the Moneyline tonight, while the Ducks come in with +130 odds. The game total sits at 6.5 combined goals.

Betting splits show 72% of straight bets on Edmonton to win, 60% of wagers on Anaheim to cover the +1.5 puck line, and 75% on the total’s over.

Once again, over 6.5 goals would be my top pick as it has been in every game of the series. However, the value continues to decrease as the odds there are now -162. That’s not exactly worth a look as a standalone best bet, so we’re targeting something else instead.

Frankly, the play of both Ingram and this Oilers group has been nothing short of disastrous when it comes to defense. They’re allowing 5.00 goals per game to the Ducks, the worst GAA of any team in the postseason. Despite the series heading to Edmonton, there’s a really good chance that the visitors come out on top and close this one out. McDavid’s status is one to monitor, but I’ll put it this way.

If he plays, I’m taking the over on Anaheim’s team total of 3.5 goals at +115 odds. If he does not suit up, which would be pretty shocking, it should all but doom the Oilers without the best player in the league being on the ice to bolster their own offense and keep pace. If that’s the case, an alt puck line of Ducks -1.5 brings some excellent value at +255 odds instead. Pick your poison, but either way, I like Anaheim to score plenty.