Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Wednesday’s MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Los Angeles Angels.
In the American League, almost everyone is a postseason contender. The Orioles (38-43), despite their .500 record, are only two games out of a playoff spot. That makes the next month prior to the trade deadline crucial for Baltimore. It’s a different story for the Angels (33-48), stuck at the bottom of the AL West. Still, Los Angeles has an opportunity to earn a series victory at home this afternoon.
The Angels are favorites (-126) over the Orioles, with the over/under set at nine runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between Baltimore and Los Angeles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Toeing the slab in this one for Baltimore will be Trey Gibson. It’s been a rough few weeks for the rookie, looking to establish himself as an MLB-caliber arm. Through six appearances (five starts), he’s notched a 5.81 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and 20 strikeouts (6.8 K/9). A look at the advanced metrics doesn’t inspire much confidence. Gibson sits within the 15th percentile among qualified starters in xERA (6.20), xBA (.283), strikeout rate (16.4%) and walk rate (13.9%). On the bright side, the right-hander is coming off of a five-inning, three-run showing vs. the Dodgers last week.
The Angels don’t come close to their crosstown rivals at the plate. Still, this group shouldn’t be slept on entirely. Los Angeles is tied for tenth in runs scored (367), 11th in home runs (97) and 14th in slugging percentage (.400). Unfortunately, future Hall of Famer Mike Trout (hamstring) is on the injured list. Regardless, three other regulars on the active roster have a slugging percentage greater than .400. The Halos have tallied 33 runs over their last four games, fourth-most in the league during that stretch.
In most matchups, the Angels are at a disadvantage on the mound. That’s not the case this afternoon with staff ace Jose Soriano on the bump. It’s been a breakout campaign for the right-hander, on track for his first career All-Star Game selection. Through 92.0 innings of work (16 starts), he’s put up a 3.03 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 98 strikeouts (9.6 K/9). The Dominican’s best trait is an ability to prevent the ball from elevating; his 53.6% ground ball rate sits within the 91st percentile. Unsurprisingly, Soriano has a career 0.7 HR/9 ratio.
It’s fair to say that the Orioles are an offensively-minded club. Their 4.84 runs per game are the ninth-most in baseball this season. Where this group really shines is in the power department; four different Baltimore hitters have clubbed double-digit home runs. That includes offseason acquisition Pete Alonso (122 wRC+), among the sport’s most prolific sluggers. However, as previously mentioned, Soriano excels at limiting the long ball. Failure to launch could put the O’s at a disadvantage. That’s without factoring in the absence of catcher Adley Rutschman (concussion).
Both of these teams do most of their damage via the home run. However, the difference this afternoon comes on the mound. Gibson is unproven at best, and hasn’t shown much during his brief time in the majors. In comparison, Soriano’s ground ball-heavy approach is suited to stifle Baltimore’s hitters.
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