Sean Barnard takes you through his preview, prediction and best bet for Sunday’s game between the Atlanta Braves and the Cincinnati Reds.
It is a loaded slate of MLB action with all 30 teams in action. During the afternoon slate, the Atlanta Braves will take on the Cincinnati Reds. Atlanta has picked up victories in the opening two games of this series and will be looking to complete the sweep with Spencer Strider and Nick Lodolo facing off as the pitching matchup today.
The Braves are 1.5-run favorites with -131 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Reds sit as +108 underdogs, with the total set at O/U 8.5 runs.
After an injury-riddled season last year, the Atlanta Braves have returned to their desired level of production and enter this matchup with an MLB-best 40-19 record. Atlanta won the opening two games of this series by scores of 8-3 and 5-2 and enters on three-game winning streak overall. On the season, the Braves have gone 37-22 to the run line, with the game total 27-28-4 to the over/under.
Right-hander Spencer Strider will take the ball for the Braves today. After bursting onto the scene as one of the brightest young pitching stars in the league, injuries have provided some hurdles for the now 27-year-old. Strider has made five starts this season and thrown 26.0 innings pitched. He enters today’s matchup with a 3.46 ERA, a 1.154 WHIP, and 32 strikeouts tallied on the season.
The Braves have been incredible at the plate so far, slashing .260/.326/.435 with a .761 OPS as a team. Drake Baldwin headlines the effort with a .303 average, but is currently sidelined on the injured list. Matt Olson leads the team with 16 home runs and 45 RBIs, while Baldwin and Michael Harris II each add 13 home runs of their own. Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Dominic Smith also play key roles. The Braves rank second in the MLB in runs tallied, second in total home runs, lead the league in hits, and rank 20th in strikeouts.
The Cincinnati Reds enter this matchup with a 29-28 record on the season, which slots them in last place in the NL Central. They will be looking to salvage this series after losing the opening two matchups. Cincinnati is on a three-game losing streak overall and is 5-7 across its past 12. This season, the Reds have gone 32-25 against the run line, and the game total is 35-21-1 to the over/under.
Nick Lodolo will get the start today, and he has just four starts and 21.0 innings pitched under his belt on the season. The left-hander enters with a 5.57 ERA, with five home runs allowed and 18 strikeouts tallied. Lodolo is coming off his best start of the year, in which he limited the Mets to one earned run while tallying seven strikeouts across six innings pitched. He will look to build off this and get back to the level of talent he flashed to be last season.
This Cincinnati roster is slashing a collective .230/.313/.394 with a .707 OPS. Elly De La Cruz leads the team with 63 hits, along with 12 home runs and 37 RBIs. Sal Stewart adds 12 home runs and 37 RBIs of his own, while Spencer Steer, Matt McClain, Nathaniel Lowe, and JJ Bleday have each driven in at least 20 runs this year. As a team, the Reds rank 28th in hits, 16th in runs, eighth in home runs, and sixth in strikeouts.
My lean is toward the Braves taking care of business to complete the sweep and not having trouble covering the 1.5-run line. Atlanta has consistently looked like one of the best teams in baseball this season, and the Reds have been a far cry from this conversation. The Braves picked up largely comfortable wins in the first two games of this series and will look to do the same tonight. However, my best bet for the matchup is the game total going over 8.5 runs.
Atlanta’s offense has been at a stellar level all season. They lead the MLB in hits and rank second in runs tallied and home runs. The Braves have scored five or more runs in four of their last five games and eight of their last 11. This is a matchup that Atlanta should have a clear chance to add to this with Nick Lodolo on the mound. Lodolo has allowed 13 earned runs across his first 21.0 innings pitched this season, and his previous start is the first time he has escaped without conceding at least three runs. This is one of the more favorable pitching matchups the Braves have faced, and they have not needed much help putting runs on the board this season.
On the other side of the matchup, Spencer Strider enters with some concerns of his own. While he can look like one of the top pitchers in baseball when he is physically right, Strider has not been able to perform at this level on a consistent basis in quite some time. He has allowed 10 earned runs across 26.0 innings pitched this season, and has given up three earned runs in back-to-back starts as well as three of the five games this year. The Reds have also done a nice job against Strider in the past, with Cincinnati recording seven hits in 18 at-bats and four RBIs tallied.
The game total has finished at 11 and seven in the first two games of this series, and this is the most favorable pitching matchup for runs being put on the board. Expect Strider and Lodolo to each have some struggles on the mound and for each lineup to have some success attacking. Buckle up for a beautiful day of baseball in which the runs start flowing and record over 8.5 combined runs tonight.
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
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