Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and best bet for today’s baseball game between the Colorado Rockies and the San Francisco Giants.
The San Francisco Giants came to Denver needing a soft landing and found another ledge instead. Colorado, 22-37, can sweep the series Sunday after winning 8-6 on Friday and 8-3 on Saturday. San Francisco, 22-36, has lost five straight games and 10 consecutive matchups inside the NL West. Friday broke the Giants late, with a three-run ninth-inning lead vanishing on Hunter Goodman’s tying homer and Ezequiel Tovar’s second blast of the night. Saturday broke earlier: Jake McCarthy drove in four runs, Ryan Feltner blanked San Francisco for six innings, and the Rockies reached 27 hits across the first two games. The Giants have answered with a roster jolt, promoting Jonah Cox straight from Double-A after he hit .400 with a 1.096 OPS. Cox will wait for his debut after a rushed travel day. For now, a worn club has to prevent Coors Field from turning one bad weekend into a sweep. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Colorado Rockies and the San Francisco Giants.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Robbie Ray is a perilous starter to trust in Denver right now. The left-hander is 3-6 with a 4.60 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 53 strikeouts across 58 2/3 innings. His last two starts produced 13 earned runs, 13 hits, nine walks and three home runs in 8 1/3 innings. Ray’s 5.62 FIP and 31.1% ground-ball rate deepen the concern in a park that punishes elevated contact. Opponents have slugged .500 against his four-seam fastball and .519 against his slider, his two dominant offerings. Tanner Gordon enters with a 5.85 ERA and 1.49 WHIP across 32 1/3 innings. His 4.08 FIP offers a cleaner underlying profile than Ray’s. His contact results remain dangerous here: a 91.4 mph average exit velocity, 44.6% hard-hit rate and 13.9% barrel rate allowed.
The Giants possess enough impact to make Gordon’s contact trouble expensive. Casey Schmitt leads San Francisco with 12 home runs, 31 RBI and a .550 slugging percentage. His 14.8% barrel rate fits perfectly against a starter already leaking barrels through the air. Luis Arraez brings the inning-building pressure, batting .322 with a .365 on-base percentage. He owns an .805 OPS against right-handed pitching and has struck out only nine times in 237 plate appearances. Rafael Devers has seven home runs and 29 RBI, with a 91.5 mph average exit velocity and 49.0% hard-hit rate. Willy Adames adds 17 doubles, seven homers and a .754 OPS against right-handers. Jung Hoo Lee has immediately repaired the order’s depth, collecting six hits across his first two games back from injury.
That San Francisco lineup produced more menace Saturday than its three runs suggest. Drew Gilbert homered and drove in two after assuming a larger role following Harrison Bader’s injury. Bryce Eldridge doubled, Matt Chapman collected two hits, and Lee tripled during another active performance. The Giants finished with nine hits and six extra-base hits in the loss. Their batted-ball quality was louder: five barrels, a 44.8% hard-hit rate, a .635 expected slugging percentage and a .403 expected wOBA. Gordon now faces an order generating force from several directions. Schmitt and Devers supply the heaviest contact. Arraez and Lee keep innings alive. Adames, Gilbert and Eldridge extend the threat beyond the first four hitters. San Francisco has scored nine runs in this series while leaving a larger offensive total on the field.
Colorado’s season-long .654 OPS against left-handed pitching provides the clearest restraint on another scoring eruption. Ray’s current form gives that lineup a much friendlier invitation. Goodman leads the Rockies with 13 home runs and carries a .483 slugging percentage, 14.0% barrel rate and 46.7% hard-hit rate. He has slugged .500 with four homers against left-handers, then authored Friday’s game-tying three-run shot. McCarthy enters Sunday batting .288 with a .453 slugging percentage, 10 stolen bases and five hits in this series. TJ Rumfield brings a .284/.361/.443 line, seven home runs and 28 RBI into the third spot. Willi Castro has reached a .751 OPS against left-handers and collected two hits Saturday. Tovar’s season numbers remain modest, yet he has hits in 14 of his last 18 games. His three home runs this week have restored another damaging right-handed swing to Colorado’s order.
The late innings carry the same combustible feeling as the starting matchup. San Francisco’s bullpen entered Sunday with a 7.03 ERA across its previous seven days. Caleb Kilian surrendered five runs in Friday’s ninth inning, turning a three-run lead into defeat. Ryan Borucki allowed three more runs Saturday, then was designated for assignment Sunday. Tristan Beck arrives from Triple-A as immediate bullpen reinforcement, while Jonah Cox arrives from Double-A after batting .400 with a 1.096 OPS. Cox is unavailable for the starting lineup following his travel day, leaving the present order to respond first. Colorado’s relief staff allowed three late Giants runs Saturday and has limited dependable shutdown depth behind its best available arms. The first two games have already produced 25 runs and 48 hits. A warm Denver afternoon keeps that pressure fully alive.
The number has reached 11 because every central part of this game points toward another demanding afternoon for pitchers. San Francisco brings the deeper contact order against Gordon’s elevated barrel and hard-hit profile. Colorado brings Goodman’s lefty power, McCarthy’s eruption, Tovar’s renewed lift and Ray’s collapsing command. The danger is Colorado falling back toward its weaker season split against left-handers. Ray’s nine walks and 13 earned runs across his last two starts keep that concern from outweighing the matchup. Two wounded bullpens leave ample scoring time after either starter departs.
Best Bet: Giants-Rockies Over 11 runs (-113)
Projected score: Giants 7, Rockies 6
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