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Tonight, a 27-year wait could end for the New York Knicks. Not since 1999 and the tail end of the Allan Houston-Patrick Ewing era have the Knicks made the NBA Finals, but after taking a 3-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Cleveland Cavaliers, they’re just 48 minutes away from breaking that drought.
Game 4 will begin at 8:10 p.m. ET in Cleveland, and a loss for the Cavaliers would result in their first postseason sweep since the 2018 NBA Finals. It’d likely also bring an end to their current core, given their precarious salary cap situation.
New York is a 2.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-135 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 218.5. Cleveland is +114 on the Moneyline.
For the playoffs, DraftKings is running a 50% Same-Game Parlay Profit Boost on SGP’s of at least four legs with at least +300 odds (maximum $10 wager). Below, I’ve laid out my favorite qualifying SGP for you to consider.
These Knicks probably aren’t the greatest team in NBA history — teams that go 53-29 and finish nearly as close to the Play-In Tournament as the top of the conference usually don’t qualify — but their record-setting dominance is hard to ignore. No team has ever finished a playoff run with a better point differential than New York’s current plus-234, and while that could dip in the NBA Finals, it underscores just how much the Knicks are clicking. For the postseason, New York has had the best offense and the second-best defense, while the Cavaliers have been a net-negative team. Shooting variance normalization could bring the Knicks down to earth somewhat, but the 42.6% mark they’ve shot on wide-open threes this series isn’t even that unsustainable, and regression to the 39.8% they shot in the regular season wouldn’t be nearly enough for Cleveland to close the gap. Its two-point defense simply hasn’t been good enough, and it has to stop turning the ball over and losing the rebounding battle.
Brunson had 38 points in Game 1, including 24 in the second half and overtime alone, and he returned to his scoring ways in Game 3, icing the game with a trio of free throws in the waning seconds to finish with 30 points for the fifth time in his last nine games. After wreaking havoc on Brunson in the regular season, Dean Wade simply hasn’t been adequate defensively this series, limiting him to merely four-for-nine shooting, and the Knicks’ captain has been exceptional against basically every other player in the Cavaliers’ rotation. Brunson’s ultra-hot finishing from both the restricted area and the floater range could cool (he’s hit 75.0% of his layups and 66.7% of his non-restricted paint shots this series after converting at 63.8% and 47.9% clips, respectively, during the regular season), but his three-point shooting is bound to improve. He’s just two-for-17 (11.8%) from beyond the arc after finishing as a 36.9% three-point shooter during the regular season.
This is more of a usage play than anything else, as Mitchell hasn’t had a very efficient postseason, shooting just 28.3% from beyond the arc across his last 12 games. However, he’s still hit at least three triples in eight of his 17 playoff games overall, including Games 1 and 3, and he reached that mark in 43 of his 70 regular-season appearances. Given how solid New York’s rim protection has been all season, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen have been less consistently reliable scoring options than they were during the regular season, and James Harden has struggled with turnovers, putting more ball-handling and scoring duty in Mitchell’s hands. He leads all conference finals participants in usage rate, and as the Knicks continue to wall off the paint and Mitchell’s legs get fatigued, he should fire away more and more from deep. New York has allowed the fourth-most three-point attempts this postseason, and Mitchell has attempted more than 30% of Cleveland’s threes when he’s been on the court.
Bridges isn’t typically known for his shot-blocking prowess, and he hasn’t contested shots at the rim at quite the rate these playoffs as he did during the regular season, but he blocked Mitchell in transition early in the third quarter and Max Strus early in the fourth quarter. He also recorded at least one block in 45 of his 82 games during the regular season, including all three games against the Cavaliers. All of the Knicks’ wings will be needed more as interior defenders because Cleveland has successfully played Mitchell Robinson out of the series, forcing Mike Brown to go small with OG Anunoby at center and Bridges at power forward whenever Karl-Anthony Towns needs a rest. Plus, Bridges has mostly guarded Harden this series, and in addition to being one of the league’s most tenacious drivers, The Beard has been the league’s fifth most-blocked player these playoffs. Mitchell, Bridges’ second-most frequent assignment, leads the league in that stat.
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