Cooper Albers previews Monday’s MLB series opener between the Toronto Blue Jays and the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium.
We’ve got an American League Division Series rematch set for Monday night, as the New York Yankees kick off a four-game set with the AL East rival Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees (28–19, 2nd AL East) have dropped eight of their last 11 contests, punctuated by a humiliating Subway Series loss to the Mets in Queens. The Blue Jays (21–25, 3rd AL East) have lost eight of their last 14, though they’re coming off a series win over the Tigers in Detroit.
Looking at the pitching probables, Toronto left-hander Patrick Corbin (1–1, 3.93 ERA) is slated to take on New York southpaw Ryan Weathers (2–2, 3.00 ERA).
First pitch is tabbed for 7:05 p.m. ET. The Yankees enter as 1.5-run home favorites with -171 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Blue Jays are +141 underdogs, with the total set at O/U nine runs.
The Blue Jays have struggled to reach the heights of last season, when they reached the World Series for the first time in over three decades. Bo Bichette left in free agency, and George Springer hasn’t been the same since returning from the injured list, while the likes of Alejandro Kirk, Addison Barger, and Nathan Lukes are all currently sidelined.
Toronto trudges into Monday with an abysmal offense, ranking 26th league-wide in wRC+ and wOBA, 28th in xwOBA, and 25th in total runs scored. While superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting for average, he has belted only three home runs through 46 games. (He is famously dominant against the Yankees, though.)
Making matters worse, the Blue Jays feature the unluckiest pitching staff in the American League (in terms of BABIP). But one of their starters seems to have enjoyed the opposite fortune, and his name is Patrick Corbin. The veteran lefty’s glitzy 3.93 ERA through seven starts (34.1 IP) is underscored by a 6.10 xERA, a .312 xBA, and a 15% strikeout rate — all of which rank in MLB’s bottom 10 percent. Most recently, he coughed up three earned runs over 4.1 frames on nine hits with just one strikeout against the Rays. He has also been taken deep by five of nine batters in New York’s starting lineup.
The Yankees have some serious damage control to do this week. They’re coming off an ignominious series loss to the Mets that capped a disastrous 2–7 road trip. Now, they return home to face the club that humiliated them in last year’s American League Division Series.
But despite “running it back” with largely the same group, New York has remained arguably the most formidable contender in the league. The Bronx Bombers lead MLB in home runs, while also pacing the AL in wRC+, wOBA, xwOBA — and ERA. While the daily heroics of Aaron Judge and Ben Rice continue to dominate headlines, it’s also worth noting that polarizing shortstop Anthony Volpe has worked a jaw-dropping seven walks in his first 16 plate appearances since returning from the injured list.
New York’s pitching staff has been bolstered by multiple breakout performers in the starting rotation, including Ryan Weathers. The 26-year-old southpaw with Yankee pedigree has posted a clean 3.00 ERA (4.22 xERA) with a 1.11 WHIP through his first eight starts (45 IP) in pinstripes. While his underlying metrics suggest some early luck, Weathers currently ranks in MLB’s 90th percentile with a 29.8% strikeout rate. In his latest outing, Weathers tossed 6.1 innings of two-run ball with nine strikeouts against the Orioles.
A lot has changed since these teams last met in October. The Yankees head into Monday with a clear advantage in nearly every facet of the game, highlighted by a potent offense and a reliable arm on the mound. Expect New York to strike first in the series opener against its division rival.
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