On Friday night, the Colorado Rockies roll into Citi Field to take on the New York Mets to start their weekend series. The Mets have won back-to-back games after their 12-game losing skid, and they’ll have their ace on the mound as they look to make it three straight on Friday.

Freddy Peralta is making his sixth start of the season after coming over in a trade from the Brewers. He’ll be opposed by Michael Lorenzen of the Rockies, who has started the season slowly after his impressive World Baseball Classic. The weather forecast is clear but cool with temps in the low 50s. It will be the first meeting between these teams this season, with the Mets headed to Coors Field early next week.

The Mets are home favorites at -219 on the Moneyline, with the over/under at 7.5 runs. Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Rockies at Mets prediction, preview

Peralta is 1-2 in his five starts with a 4.05 ERA and 4.35 FIP. He has 28 strikeouts in 26 2/3 innings, but his strikeouts have been trending down in his last few outings. He should be in a good spot to bounce back from a strikeout perspective, though, since the Rockies have the second-most strikeouts in the majors, averaging 9.2 strikeouts per game.

Peralta has worked at least five innings in all but one of his starts this year, so he has a good chance for a win if the Mets’ lineup can get him some run support against Lorenzen.

On the season, Lorenzen has a 7.48 ERA and has given up 23 runs (18 earned) on 40 hits in 21 2/3 innings. He has allowed a 50% hard-hit rate and four home runs on the year. Lefties are hitting a scalding .440 with three homers and a .524 wOBA against Lorenzen this season, so especially that side of the Mets’ order should be especially productive Friday night.

The Mets just got one of their biggest lefty bats back in the order with the return of Juan Soto but lost Francisco Lindor (calf) to the injured list. Even without Lindor, they knocked off the Twins on Thursday night, with Bo Bichette delivering a big three-run double.

Bichette hit leadoff and went 3-for-5 with two runs scored and three RBI. Soto has gone just 1-for-6 with three walks in his two games back from his own calf injury. He should be in a good spot against Lorenzen, along with Brett Baty, who went 2-for-4 with his first homer of the season in Thursday’s win.

For the Rockies, they’ll head back on the road after going 3-4 in their seven-game homestand against the Dodgers and Padres. At 10-16, they haven’t been good, but they haven’t been as bad as some feared coming into the season. Lefty Mickey Moniak has been one of their best hitters, blasting a team-high eight homers and hitting .324. Hunter Goodman has been solid and rookie T.J. Rumfield has flashed intriguing upside after a spring training trade to Colorado.

Overall, the Rockies are below league average, but they haven’t been the worst offense in the league, even when you account for their home games at Coors Field.

Rockies at Mets pick, best bet

Best Bet: Mets -1.5 (-102)

The Mets have a huge starting pitching advantage with Peralta against the struggling Lorenzen, and the Rockies are only 3-10 on the road this season.

Strong Lean: Freddy Peralta to record a win (+119)

Peralta has done a good job getting enough outs to qualify for a win, and since the Mets should be able to get to Lorenzen, he should get the run support he needs. Lots of things can go wrong with a “to record a win” prop, but getting this at plus-money this Friday feels like good value.