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On Sunday afternoon of Memorial Day Weekend, Major League Baseball has a full day of action lined up with the weekend series wrapping up before the start of new matchups on Monday to wrap up the long weekend. After the early games get underway, four games make up the later wave of action at just after 4:00 p.m. ET. The Tigers and Orioles finish their doubleheader while the Rangers and Angels meet in the typical Sunday night games. With six games later on the scoreboard, there’s plenty of baseball throughout the day, so let’s pinpoint a few home run props that make sense from the later matchups that make sense to play this Sunday.
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Make sure to check out the Grand Slam Payout promo on DraftKings Sportsbook, which is back to $250,000 after Harrison Bader’s second slam of the month on Saturday. The promotion will continue through the rest of the month of May, with plenty of bonus bets still up for grabs.
In this post, we’ll look at three of my favorite home run props this Saturday from Ronald Acuna Jr., Miguel Vargas and Zach Neto.
Acuna and the Braves face lefty Foster Griffin on Sunday afternoon in Atlanta after splitting the first two games of the series with their division rivals. Acuna had a rough game on Saturday, going 0-for-4 with four strikeouts against Jake Irvin and the Nationals’ bullpen, who combined on a one-hit shutout. Acuna will look to help the offense get back on track against Griffin in a late start at Truist Park.
Acuna has only two homers this season and has been limited to 39 games due to injury. He had 21 homers in 95 games last season and remains a long-ball threat when he’s at his best. He just came off the injured list on Tuesday after missing two weeks, and since then he is 4-for-19 (.211) but with a 69.2% hard-hit rate and 7.7% barrel rate. He had four hard-hit balls on Friday before failing to get one in play on Saturday.
Griffin is a solid matchup since he has allowed 10 homers in his 10 starts this year, including seven to right-handed hitters, who have a 12.4% barrel rate against him and a .184 ISO.
Acuna’s name has been swirling in trade rumors, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he responds with a nice hot streak over the next few weeks.
The White Sox are in San Francisco, taking on lefty Robbie Ray after splitting the first two games of their weekend series. Ray is 3-6 on the season with a 4.28 ERA and has allowed 12 homers in his 10 starts. He has had a few good home outings, but he has been very hittable in May with seven homers against him in four starts and 18 runs allowed over 21 1/3 innings during that span.
While Ray has been able to keep lefties in check, which will help him against Munetaka Murakami and Colson Montgomery, he has struggled against righties like Miguel Vargas. Righties have hit all 12 of the homers he has allowed this year with a .266 ISO, 42% hard-hit rate and a 14.3% barrel rate.
Vargas has been lost in the shadows of his two slugging teammates a little bit, but he’s had a strong start to the season with 11 homers in 50 games, hitting .243 with a .377 wOBA that is a huge jump from last year’s .314 wOBA. He has a 14.7% barrel rate and a .395 xWOBA, showing he makes excellent contact on a regular basis. Six of his 11 homers have come against southpaws, who he is hitting .321 against with a .415 ISO and .495 wOBA.
If anyone on the White Sox is going to have the power to keep Ray’s struggles going, Vargas is a great option to consider for home run props. After his struggles with the sun on Saturday, he will look to get his vengeance on the Giants this Sunday.
In the Sunday Night Baseball matchup, two more lefties will take the mound as MacKenzie Gore starts for the Rangers against Reid Detmers of the Angels. Both have been decent at limiting home runs, so Sunday Night Baseball has lots of longer odds for home runs.
One option that stands out as a good value play at over 5:1 is Zach Neto of the Angels. He’ll be taking on Gore, who has allowed six homers in his 10 starts, including three in his six road starts and five to right-handed hitters. On the road, Gore has a 6.84 ERA and 5.38 FIP, so the fact that the game is in Anaheim helps Neto be a better play.
Neto has hit eight homers on the year, with four of those coming in his last 10 games. He has a 24% barrel rate over those 10 contests with a 48% hard-hit rate, an average exit velocity of 92.9 miles per hour, a .389 ISO and a .460 wOBA.
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