Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Wednesday’s MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and Colorado Rockies.
The Red Sox (32-45) earned a much-needed 5-2 victory last night. Now, Boston enters Wednesday’s rubber match in desperate need of a series win. The Rockies (31-49), another last place club, are stuck in the top-heavy NL West. However, Colorado will be angling for an upset at the unpredictable environment that is Coors Field.
The Red Sox are favorites (-171) over the Rockies, with the over/under set at 11 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between Boston and Colorado on DraftKings Sportsbook.
During an otherwise awful season, Ranger Suarez has been a steadying force for Boston. Through 76.2 innings of work (14 starts), the left-hander owns a 2.93 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 75 strikeouts (8.8 K/9). During his last time out in Seattle, the veteran spun 6.2 innings of scoreless, one-hit ball. Granted, a similar showing will be more difficult today at the league’s most hitter-friendly ballpark. Regardless, this isn’t Suarez’s first time pitching in Denver. Over four career road games against Colorado, the 30-year-old has delivered a stellar 3.20 ERA.
Suarez does a stellar job at limiting well struck balls; he’s inside the 86th percentile in average exit velocity (86.8 MPH) and hard-hit rate (32.5%). That’s crucial given this afternoon’s pitching environment. The Rockies aren’t pushovers on offense, but they’ve scored just 174 total runs at home this season. That’s only good enough for 19th in the majors. Mickey Moniak (137 wRC+), T.J. Rumfield (120 wRC+) and Hunter Goodman (110 wRC+) have been solid. However, this lineup lacks depth and power. Colorado has hit 39 home runs at Coors Field, tenth-fewest at home for any club. In comparison, Suarez has a stellar 0.5 HR/9 ratio.
As for the home team, it’ll be rotation mainstay Kyle Freeland on the bump. The 33-year-old, now in his tenth season with the team, hasn’t been very effective. Over 13 starts (66.0 IP), he’s on the hook for a 7.36 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and 57 strikeouts (7.8 K/9). Those numbers are slightly better at home, but still terrible (6.32 ERA, 1.53 WHIP). Freeland sits within the tenth percentile or worse in xERA (5.59), xBA (.299) and average exit velocity (90.9 MPH). There’s nothing on paper to suggest he’ll turn things around this season.
If there was ever a group capable of helping out an opposing pitcher, it’s the Red Sox. They’ve scored an American League-worst 3.91 runs per game. In addition, franchise cornerstone Roman Anthony (finger) is on the injured list. Boston’s biggest weakness is a lack of power, hitting just 65 homers. Only the Rays (63) have hit fewer this season. With that being said, Wednesday presents a golden opportunity for the visitors. The Red Sox have posted a .751 OPS against left-handed pitching, sixth-best in baseball.
Suarez has been on a roll, and his past success at Coors Field suggests another quality performance is on tap. It’s a far different story for Freeland, who looks absolutely lost on the mound. Boston, if nothing else, has proven it can hit left-handed pitching. A comfortable win for the Red Sox feels inevitable on Wednesday.
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