The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs have split the Western Conference Finals at one game apiece thus far. With the action set to continue tonight as the venue shifts to Texas, the pressure is ratcheting up for all parties involved. Chet Holmgren’s playoff production has taken a nosedive since this series began, and given his track record against Victor Wembanyama, signs point to another fade as one of tonight’s best betting strategies.

Here are the top Chet Holmgren prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s Thunder vs. Spurs Game 3 in the Western Conference Finals.

Best Chet Holmgren prop bets

In the regular season, the Thunder’s young big man averaged 17.1 points, 8.9 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game while shooting 55.7% from the field. His totals in scoring, rebounding, and FG% were all new career highs, showing with his two-way prowess that perhaps he’d earned the massive contract extension he signed over the offseason. He was his team’s second-best player in the postseason through the first two rounds as well, posting 18.6 points and 9.1 rebounds per game over his eight appearances, also shooting 60.0% overall and 38.7% from deep. With 3.2 combined stocks a night, he continued to put his defensive ability on display to impact the game in a major way.

Things have taken a turn since then for Holmgren’s production, though. Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals was his worst performance to date with eight points on just 2-for-7 shooting. Game 2 wasn’t much better as he posted 13 points and four rebounds, though his 5-for-10 night as a scorer was an improvement. With just 21 points and 12 rebounds across this series — averages of 10.5 and six — the Spurs are clearly limiting him.

Tonight, DraftKings Sportsbook lists Holmgren’s prop bet lines at O/U 13.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.5 blocks and 1.5 three pointers. His combined PTS + REB + AST line comes in at 23.5.

There’s something to be said about Holmgren’s play when he faces Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs. As mentioned earlier, he’s at 10.5 points and 6.0 rebounds a game in this series in an admittedly small sample size, shooting 7-for-17 and 2-for-6 from deep. Looking at the bigger picture of the full season against San Antonio, a total of six matchups, he’s also at an average of just 10.5 points with 7.3 rebounds, shooting 39.6% overall and 25.0% from long range.

Clearly this defense — especially Wembanyama’s length — really bothers Holmgren. He’s 7-foot-1 and shooting below 40% from the field, also seeing a downtick to just 8.0 FGA per game after putting up 11.3 a night during the regular season. With his efficiency and volume both down, it feels likely that he delivers another disappointing outing tonight. For that reason, I’m fully in on fading Holmgren again. He’s scored fewer than 13.5 points in five of his six games against the Spurs this season, and even though Jalen Williams is unlikely to play, I’d rather bet on Ajay Mitchell or someone else to see the benefit in terms of a big night rather than Chet.

Best bet: Chet Holmgren under 13.5 points (-106)