Garion Thorne details his top home run props for tonight’s slate, including bets for Mark Vientos and Alec Burleson.
Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s condensed slate: Mark Vientos and Alec Burleson.
Let’s break them down.
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos | +381 | Vientos has been the Mets’ most dangerous hitter against left-handed pitching this season, slashing .300/.329/.550 with a .250 ISO and a 143 wRC+ across 85 plate appearances. That includes hitting his 10th long ball of 2026 last night versus lefty Shota Imanaga. |
| Alec Burleson | +499 | Burleson is slashing .335/.412/.603 with a 180 wRC+ versus RHPs. Zac Gallen owns a 6.98 ERA on the road in 2026, and he’s surrendered 2.09 opponent home runs per nine within the split. You do the math. |
In-depth analysis below.
A good thing happening for the Mets? I know. It’s a wild concept, but remember, just because Vientos hits a home run, it doesn’t mean New York will actually win the game. The 26-year-old has been the Mets’ most dangerous hitter against left-handed pitching this season, slashing .300/.329/.550 with a .250 ISO and a 143 wRC+ across 85 plate appearances. That includes hitting his 10th long ball of 2026 last night versus lefty Shota Imanaga. The southpaw in question on Thursday? Matthew Boyd, who will be making his first start for the Cubs since all the way back on May 3. Boyd struggled to a 6.00 ERA in his five outings prior to the injury, and a massive 50.8% opponent hard hit rate wasn’t helping matters. Remember, Boyd also had home run issues in the stretch run of 2025, serving up 1.77 opponent homers per nine in the month of September.
Zac Gallen has pitched poorly pretty much every time he’s taken the mound in 2026, yet he’s been especially bad when having to toe the rubber on the road. To wit, Gallen owns a 6.98 ERA within the split, and he’s surrendered 2.09 opponent home runs per nine. Woof. Gallen also owns just a fourth percentile strikeout rate (14.3%), so you don’t have to worry about Burleson’s ability to produced batted ball events on Thursday evening. You really don’t have to worry about Burleson at all — he’s having a fantastic campaign. At least that’s what a 97th percentile expected slugging (.546) and a 96th percentile expected wOBA (.388) suggest. The man is truly been one of the league’s best platoon bats, as Burleson is slashing .335/.412/.603 with a 180 wRC+ versus RHPs. Gallen should tread carefully.
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