Check out a prediction and top betting pick for Game 4 between the Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens in round two of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The Buffalo Sabres were a force to be reckoned with over the second half of the NHL season, but their Stanley Cup hopes are suddenly in danger. After taking the opening matchup against the Montreal Canadiens in the second round of the postseason, they’ve now dropped two straight contests to go down 2-1 in this series. A nation’s hopes of bringing home a title rest with the Habs, who have looked fantastic in these last two games. With the backing of the Montreal faithful at the Bell Centre once again tonight, could they go up 3-1 to take a commanding grip on proceedings?
Here’s a Sabres vs. Canadiens Game 4 prediction and pick for Tuesday’s NHL Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Buffalo won Game 1 with four goals on just 16 shots, and if that wasn’t something of an outlier, I don’t know what is. Games 2 and 3 played out in much different fashion as Montreal logged 28 and 36 shots on goal, connecting for a grand total of 11 goals in those two contests while allowing only three to the opposing side. The Canadiens’ offensive onslaught has proven extremely difficult to stop, so much so that the Sabres are now pulling netminder Alex Lyon — who has largely been excellent this postseason — in favor of Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen as the Game 4 starter.
That’s a move that could prove costly if he doesn’t perform, and based on his prior numbers in his first two playoff starts, the outlook isn’t great. His SV% in those games against the Boston Bruins sat at an abysmal .825 with a 4.19 GAA. Could Luukonen look more like the version of himself we saw in the regular season with a .910 SV% and 2.52 GAA? If the blue line shows up in front of him to offer support, it’s within the realm of possibility. However, that group hasn’t played up to their usual standards, nor have the forwards provided much in the way of offense to make up for it in the two most recent outings.
The Canadiens have overperformed in 5v5 situations with eight goals despite a 5.83 xGF mark, which is actually slightly surpassed by the Sabres’ 5.92 (though they’ve scored just four goals in 5v5 play). The tally of high-danger chances is just about even with a slight edge to Buffalo with 28 to Montreal’s 27. The trend is similar on the 5v4 power play as well — the Sabres have a small advantage in xGF (3.59 to 3.32) with nine HDCF to their opponents’ 10. The numbers are pretty similar, so there’s a little puck luck involved on either side of this one.
To be fair to the Canadiens, this is an up-and-coming team with a legitimate chance to make the Cup if they advance. Jakub Dobes has been excellent in his first-ever playoff run, amassing a .918 SV% with a 2.13 GAA as well. The first forward line of Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovsky finally broke out of their slump over the last couple of games to connect for multiple goals as well, so that’s another major positive. They’re a group to be taken seriously and it wouldn’t be at all shocking if they win tonight.
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Canadiens as -148 home favorites to win on the Moneyline tonight, while the Sabres come in with +124 odds on the road. The game total sits at 6.5 combined goals.
Betting splits show 59% of straight bets on Montreal to win, 51% of wagers on Buffalo to cover the +1.5 puck line, and 63% on the total’s under.
Playing against the Candiens is tough to begin with since they lay plenty of hits to grind opposing skaters down, Playing at the Bell Centre makes things even more difficult since the fanbase is rabid (I mean this in a complimentary way, Habs fans), turning every home game into a hostile environment for the visitors. With those factors and the momentum swing of the last two games in mind, the chances of winning depend on Buffalo’s skaters breaking out of their scoring slump or Luukkonen standing on his head tonight. Montreal has seized control of this series and have clearly shaken Buffalo, and bringing an unsteady goalie into this road tilt in a pressure cooker of an arena could spell trouble.
If I had to pick a winning team, I lean toward the Canadiens here for those reasons. However, I’m sticking to my guns here and targeting the under instead since I feel much more confident it cashes. In seven meetings this season including the three playoff games, under 6.5 goals has hit in five of those games. With a reliable hit rate in this sample, I’m happy to take this side of the line.
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