Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and best bet for today’s baseball game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Arizona enters Thursday at 41-39, leading this series 2-1 after Wednesday’s 9-4 win at Busch Stadium. St. Louis sits 42-36, still positioned well in the NL Central, but the Cardinals have lost two straight to a Diamondbacks team getting timely power. The board asks whether to pay for St. Louis at home, chase a game total, or isolate Zac Gallen’s decline. Michael McGreevy gives the Cardinals the cleaner starter surface, while Gallen brings the uglier current form. The best angle stays with St. Louis runs because the matchup attacks Gallen directly without needing Arizona’s bottom half to cooperate. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Gallen’s 2026 profile is a long way from his old ace shape. He enters 3-6 with a 6.10 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 105 hits allowed in 79 2/3 innings, 52 strikeouts, and 25 walks. The deeper sheet keeps the warning lights on: .366 wOBA allowed, .363 expected wOBA, 91.0 mph average exit velocity, 45.2% hard contact, and 9.7% barrels. His strikeout rate has fallen near 14%, so he cannot simply erase traffic when hitters square him up. McGreevy owns the better surface at 3-6, 3.35 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 83 1/3 innings, 76 hits allowed, 53 strikeouts, and 20 walks. His expected line carries more danger, though, with a .305 wOBA allowed against a .365 expected wOBA, plus 89.6 mph exit velocity, 40.4% hard contact, 9.7% barrels, and a .413 expected wOBA on contact.
The Gallen pitch map is why St. Louis’ team total leads the card. His four-seamer has allowed a .342 average, .496 slugging, .398 wOBA, .398 expected wOBA, and 47.1% hard contact. His slider has allowed a .309 average, .519 slugging, .388 wOBA, .349 expected wOBA, and 43.9% hard contact. His curve has allowed a .349 average, .571 slugging, .415 wOBA, .376 expected wOBA, and 45.3% hard contact. Even the low-usage sinker has been crushed for a .500 average, .875 slugging, .591 wOBA, and .461 expected wOBA. St. Louis loses some middle-order clarity without Burleson in the starting nine, but Wetherholt, Herrera, Walker, Velázquez, Fermín, Winn, Nootbaar, Jordan, and Pagés still give Gallen a long contact test.
The Cardinals have enough individual thunder to punish those pitch flaws. Wetherholt gives the leadoff spot a .350 wOBA, .355 expected wOBA, 90.0 mph exit velocity, 44.4% hard contact, and manageable swing-and-miss. Herrera follows with a .371 wOBA, .372 expected wOBA, 89.9 mph exit velocity, and 43.2% hard contact. Walker is the most important bat in the handicap, carrying 93.9 mph exit velocity, 50.9% hard contact, .372 wOBA, .365 expected wOBA, and 13.6% barrels. Nootbaar is buried seventh, which hurts plate volume, but his contact quality is still loud at 93.7 mph exit velocity, 55.6% hard contact, .376 wOBA, .398 expected wOBA, and 13.3% barrels. Fermin also arrives hot after going 2-for-3 with three runs and a solo homer Wednesday.
Arizona’s offense keeps the full-game over alive. Marte leads off with 13 HR, 47 RBI, a .265/.319/.461 slash, .502 expected slugging, .371 expected wOBA, 91.4 mph exit velocity, 116.9 mph max exit velocity, 46.2% hard contact, and 10.8% barrels. He homered Wednesday during Arizona’s six-run fourth inning. Carroll adds 91.6 mph exit velocity, 48.2% hard contact, .386 wOBA, .361 expected wOBA, 12.6% barrels, and elite speed behind Perdomo’s table-setting. McGreevy’s surface ERA is strong enough to avoid chasing Arizona team total over 4.5 as the main bet, but his .365 expected wOBA allowed keeps the Diamondbacks capable of pushing this game into the 6-4 range. Arizona’s bottom half still carries more drag than St. Louis’ Gallen matchup.
Weather complicates the total board. Busch Stadium should sit in warm, humid air, with thunderstorms threatening the evening window and more weather possible later. Warm air helps carry, but wind in from center and delay risk make a clean full-game over less comfortable. A mid-game interruption could knock out either starter and boost offense, but it could also break rhythm and create bullpen roulette. Arizona’s bullpen shows more limited arms after needing six relief innings Wednesday, while St. Louis has slightly cleaner availability. That matters for the Cardinals team total because Gallen’s short-start risk could push St. Louis into middle relief before the late innings.
Cardinals team total over 4.5 at -115 is the best bet. Cardinals ML at -132 is too expensive for a game where Arizona leads the series and has the hotter recent form. Cardinals -1.5 at +156 has payout appeal, but home-team run-line shrinkage and McGreevy’s better surface make that shape thin. Over 9 at -109 is the strongest alternate because both starters carry contact risk, Marte and Carroll match McGreevy well, and the weather could disrupt pitching plans. The cleaner edge is still St. Louis against Gallen’s damaged arsenal. The Cardinals do not need to dominate all nine innings. They need five runs against a starter allowing loud contact across four of his five main pitches.
Best Bet: Cardinals Team Total Over 4.5 (-115)
Projected score: Cardinals 6, Diamondbacks 4
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