After all the talk about how the first-round series between the Minnesota Wild and Dallas Stars would be a Cup-caliber matchup, these teams have certainly delivered. The series is now split at two games apiece, one of which went to overtime and another of which went deep into double OT. On Tuesday night, the puck drops for a pivotal Game 5 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. Teams with a 3-2 series lead are 365-94 all-time, so whoever takes this one holds a clear advantage as they put their opponents on the ropes.

Here’s a Wild vs. Stars Game 5 prediction and pick for Tuesday’s NHL Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Wild vs. Stars Game 5 prediction, preview

The Stars were blown out in Game 1 but responded with a statement win in Game 2, then took overtime in Game 3. Up 2-1 in the series, they proceeded to take a 2-0 lead in the most recent matchup on Saturday… until disaster struck. Key defenseman Nils Lundkvist took a skate to the face (and was thankfully okay for the most part, sans a cut) and exited the game, after which the momentum began to shift. Before long, the Wild came storming back to force overtime, which was capped off by a Matt Boldy deflection with just 29 seconds remaining. These teams are fighting tooth and nail; there’s something to be said about the intensity and how evenly matched they appear.

Are they really that close, though? Minnesota forward Marcus Foligno’s quote about how Dallas “can’t hang” with his team at even strength seems more pertinent than ever. The Wild have nine goals in 5v5 play with another three on the power play. Meanwhile, the Stars have only three at even strength with another seven goals on the man advantage. There’s something to be said about those discrepancies.

Does that mean Minnesota has the advantage in the series moving forward? Not exactly. Dallas maintains an excellent penalty kill at 84.2% in the postseason (though Lundkvist’s looming absence for Game 5 means the team will be without its best talent in that phase of special teams). While they gave up six goals in Game 1, the Stars have limited an excellent offense to scoring outputs of two, three, and three since then. For all the talk about Jake Oettinger’s play after the opening contest, he’s now sitting at a .902 SV% and 2.69 GAA overall this postseason with 96 saves on 104 attempts from Game 2 through Game 4 (a .923 SV%).

The Stars are clearly still in this, but the Wild will make life hell in the meantime. They’re averaging 3.50 goals per game, fourth most among playoff teams, also posting the fourth-most hits as well. Playing against this group requires immense endurance, and that’ll only be tested more if NHL hits leader Yakov Trenin can return for Game 5. Beyond him, Mats Zuccarello could also come back and see time on the power play, adding an influx of offense to the picture.

Wild vs. Stars Game 5 pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Stars as -130 favorites to win at home on the Moneyline tonight, while the Wild come in with +110 odds on the road. The game total sits at just 5.5 combined goals.

Betting splits show 68% of straight bets on Dallas to win, 71% of wagers on Dallas to cover the +1.5 puck line, and 68% on the total’s over.

This’ll likely be another very close contest since the margins of this series are largely razor thin. There’s plenty of star power on both sides, and we’re yet to see the best versions of Mikko Rantanen and Kirill Kaprizov at that. Sans the Game 1 blowout, the defenses have been quite impressive, as have both goalies — as mentioned earlier, Oettinger has looked much better recently, plus Jesper Wallstedt has a 2.06 GAA with a .929 SV% thus far.

If there were much value on the Wild’s puck line, that would certainly be the best bet for this game. However, we’re instead looking toward the under once again. Under 5.5 goals has cashed twice in this series so far and the Dallas offense hasn’t gotten much going at even strength, so I feel pretty comfortable targeting this side of the line.

Best bet: Under 5.5 goals (+102)