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Major League Baseball already opted to postpone the Rockies-Mets game in New York, leaving 28 of the 30 MLB teams on the schedule throughout the afternoon and evening this Saturday. It’s a fun slate of options with several intriguing matchups spread throughout the day. If you’re looking to swing for the fences with some home run props, a few options stand out due to their environment, matchups and current trends. Let’s pinpoint a few juicy home run props to target on DraftKings Sportsbook this Saturday.
By their nature, home run props are long shot plays, but when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate that can also build your bankroll quickly. Even the top power hitters are more likely to not homer than go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or choose to combine them in parlay or round robin formats to maximize the potential payout.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday: Colson Montgomery, Michael Busch and Sal Stewart.
While Munetaka Murakami has been getting most of the attention (and deservedly so), he’s not the only White Sox slugger heating up. Colson Montgomery has hit safely in seven straight games, going 11-for-28 (.393) with two doubles, four homers and a 55% hard-hit rate. He has a total of five barrels over those seven games with at least one hard-hit ball in each game.
Montgomery brings a little more value than Murakami (+313), as they are both in a great matchup against Jake Irvin, who is 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA and 4.96 FIP. He has allowed four homers in five games this season after serving up an MLB-high 38 homers in 33 starts last season. Lefties have hit three of those four homers this year, and 26 of his 38 homers allowed last year. Both Murakami and Montgomery are strong plays in the afternoon at Rate Field, where it will be chilly but the wind will be blowing out to right, which happens to be where Montgomery has so much power:
In one of the best series of the weekend, the red-hot Cubs are visiting the Dodgers. They won on Friday to extend their winning streak to 10 games, and on Saturday night, they’ll take on the struggling Roki Sasaki. There could be some rain in the mix, but the winds are forecast to be homer-friendly if the rain doesn’t put too much of a damper on power. Sasaki has given up 12 runs in 17 2/3 innings this season, with four homers against him, including three to lefties, who have a .327 average and .422 wOBA against him this year.
I had Busch in my home run props for Friday too, but he didn’t get a third straight game with a homer. He did have a pair of hard-hit balls, though, including a barrel that had a 104.7 mph exit velocity. Busch didn’t homer in his first 22 games this year, with just two barrels and a 28.6% hard-hit rate. However, he seems to have turned the corner earlier this week, with three barrels in his last three games boosting him to a 50% hard-hit rate in his 10 batted-ball events in the last three games. After he knocked 34 homers last year, the lefty is back to mashing, and he’ll look to keep crushing against the Dodgers, who he made his MLB debut with back in 2023. The matchup seems to be set up well for him to stack another dinger this Saturday.
The Reds and Tigers had to dodge raindrops on Friday night before Nathaniel Lowe hit a two-out, two-run walk-off homer. Lowe had two homers, Matt McLain had two homers, and the Tigers hit four homers in the loss. The ball was definitely flying out of Great American Ballpark, and on Saturday night, the weather is even more favorable for offense with temps in the 70s and winds blowing out. While he didn’t get one out of the park in Friday’s slugfest, Sal Stewart has been a great power producer for Cincinnati in his first full season in the majors.
In 26 games, Stewart has eight homers with a .284 batting average and .414 wOBA as a result of a 48.7% hard-hit rate and a 23.7% barrel rate. He has the highest barrels per plate appearance rate in the majors this season and the fifth-highest barrels per batted ball event. Stewart has hit six of his eight homers in his last 15 games, and he has been smashing everything over that span. He had a barrel on Friday night and has 12 barrels in those 15 games. On Saturday night, he’ll face righty Jack Flaherty, who has allowed a 44.3% hard-hit rate this year. With how locked in Stewart has been at the plate and the favorable forecast, Stewart is a good value play for home run props in one of the three games that start at 7:15 p.m. ET on Saturday’s schedule.
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