Blue Jays ace Dylan Cease and Astros standout Hunter Brown are slated to face off Monday, while Padres righty Michael King is also set to take the mound. Sam Connon shares his picks and predictions in regards to the three starting pitchers’ strikeout prop bets.
There are a handful of aces taking the mound Monday, from Michael King facing the Braves to Dylan Cease and Hunter Brown going head-to-head in Toronto. Can Cease continue his torrid June? How ill Brown look in his second start back from the injured list? Is King going to get back on track following a run of messy outings? Here is our full breakdown of where we think each starting pitcher will wind up in the strikeout column.
Everything is lined up for Cease to thrive on Monday night. He is red-hot, having tossed at least seven strikeouts in all seven of his starts since the start of May. Cease hit eight-plus strikeouts in four of those seven starts and 10-plus in two of them, so the ceiling is even higher. Even when he got shelled for five earned in 5.0 frames on May 19, and when he got pulled after 19 batters and 4.2 innings, Cease still notched nine and eight punchouts in those outings. He will also be taking the mound in Toronto for the seventh time this season. He has made it to seven strikeouts in six of those seven appearances at Rogers Centre. As for the Astros, their strikeout rate versus righties is 1.6% higher than their mark against lefties. Houston’s offense is also averaging just 3.3 runs per game over their last seven.
On the other side of the Blue Jays-Astros matchup, Brown is also riding a few promising streaks. He missed over two months with a shoulder injury, but has still cleared six-plus strikeouts in all three of his MLB outings this season. He struck out seven in 5.2 innings when he returned from the injured list on June 16. The Blue Jays average the second-fewest strikeouts per game this season, although they actually strike out more at home than they do on the road. Toronto’s 90 OPS+ is also good the the fourth-lowest in MLB, meaning Brown could give himself more than enough opportunities to rack up punchouts. When he faced the Blue Jays in 2025, he struck out nine in 7.0 innings.
King has been going through a bit of a rough patch as of late. He owns a 6.41 ERA and 6.44 FIP over his last five starts, all while his strikeouts per nine innings have tanked from 9.1 to 4.7. He has not topped 4.5 strikeouts at all over that stretch, either. King faced 30 batters at home against the second-most strikeout-prone lineup in MLB when he took on the Reds on June 10, and all he could muster up was three strikeouts. He followed that up with a one-strikeout performance versus the Cardinals on June 16. Atlanta ranks in the top-10 when it comes to limiting strikeouts, and King simply hasn’t shown the ability to overcome that trait in recent weeks.
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