Sean Barnard previews Wednesday’s WNBA matchup between the Portland Fire and the Chicago Sky and provides his best pick.
Tipping off as a part of tonight’s four-game WNBA slate, the Portland Fire will face off with the Chicago Sky. This is the second matchup between these two teams this season, and the first of a pair of back-to-back matchups between these two sides. They last played in the opening matchup of the season, which resulted in a 98-83 victory by the Sky.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Sky enter as 3.5-point favorites and hold -170 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sky hold +142 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at O/U 171.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Fire at Sky matchup
In their first season back in the WNBA, the Portland Fire are off to an 8-9 start to the season. They are coming off a victory over the Seattle Storm in the previous game, but have lost five of their past seven games. On the season, the Fire have gone 7-10 against the spread, and the game total is 9-8 to the over/under.
Carla Leite headlines the production, posting averages of 14.1 points and 5.6 assists per game. Unfortunately, Leite is considered questionable with a right ankle sprain. Karlie Samuelson is also considered questionable with left foot inflammation. Bridget Carleton adds 13.8 points, while Sug Sutton pitches in 11.3 points and a team-high 5.7 assists. Sarah Ashlee Barker and Megan Gustafson also average in double figures, while Emily Engstler and Luisa Geiselsoder also play notable roles.
The Fire are scoring 82.2 points per game this season, which ranks 12th among WNBA teams. They also rank 10th in offensive rating, ninth in field goal percentage, and eighth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 88.1 points per game against Portland, which ranks 10th. The Fire also rank 14th in defensive rating, 11th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and eighth in opponents’ three-point percentage.
The Chicago Sky are off to a 4-12 start to the season, holding the third-worst record in the WNBA. They enter this matchup looking to snap a six-game losing streak and have lost 11 of their last 12. On the season, the Sky have gone 7-9 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in nine of their 16 games played.
With Rickea Jackson out for the season, Skylar Diggins headlines the production with 14.5 points, 4.6 assists, and 3.1 rebounds as another major piece of Chicago’s offseason additions. DiJonai Carrington and Courtney Vandersloot will also be sidelined, while Natasha Cloud is considered questionable with an illness. Kamilla Cardoso averages 13.1 points and 8.7 rebounds, while Gabriela Jaquez and Sydney Taylor are also averaging in double figures. Jacy Sheldon and Azura Stevens each also play key roles.
The Sky are scoring 82.4 points per game, which ranks 10th in the WNBA. Chicago also ranks 13th in offensive rating, 13th in field goal percentage, and 14th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 88.9 points per game against the Sky, which ranks 12th in the WNBA. They also rank ninth in defensive rating, sixth in opponents’ field goal percentage, and first in opponents’ three-point percentage.
After an encouraging start to the season, the Chicago Sky are back to looking like one of the worst teams in the WNBA. In the first matchup between these two teams, Chicago largely cruised to a 98-83 win. They extended the lead to as many as 18, held a lead for 88% of the matchup, and out-rebounded the Fire 46-24.
Chicago has gone just 3-12 since this point, and revealed some major flaws on both sides of the ball. They most recently were blown out 92-63 by the Connecticut Sun, who are just 3-15 on the year after this win. Portland has shown more encouraging strides of late, winning two of its last three. The biggest concern from the Fire’s perspective is being dominated on the glass. They were out-rebounded by nearly double in the first matchup with this team and rank last in the league in rebounds per game.
But there is too much inconsistency with this Sky team to back them in this spot. The underdogs have covered the spread in seven of the Sky’s last eight games, and Chicago has failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games against teams that held a losing record. The Sky have also lost each of their last 10 home games against Western Conference opponents.
Expect Portland’s guards to drive more consistent offense, and for the Sky’s offensive approach to continue to look clunky. Skylar Diggins has provided some level of competence to Chicago’s offensive approach, but the injury to Rickea Jackson put a major damper on their outlook, and she has been joined by some notable names on the injury report.
Expect Carla Leita to headline the production tonight and lead the scoring charge for the Fire to put the team in a position to win. She shot just 3-for-11 from the field in the opening matchup between these two teams, which was her worst shooting performance of the season. This felt far more like some early-season jitters and settling in, as opposed to anything Chicago did defensively. Count on better results from Leita tonight and for this to pave the way for a Fire victory. Expect things to get worse before they get better for this Sky team and for the losing streak to extend to seven games.
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