After splitting the opening two games in Oklahoma City, the Thunder and Spurs will face off for Game 3 in San Antonio tonight.

It has been a thrilling start to the series between these two heavyweight title contenders. The youthful Spurs made a statement by producing a 122-115 double overtime victory in the opening matchup, before the defending champions battled back for a 122-113 win in Game 2. Both sides will have their sights set on taking control of the series in a pivotal Game 3 tonight, with this becoming one of the biggest budding rivalries in sports.

Looking at the odds for Game 3, the Spurs enter as narrow 1.5-point favorites and hold -125 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Thunder hold +105 odds of winning outright with the game total set at 217.5 points.

Spurs at Thunder preview

The San Antonio Spurs have officially arrived on the contending stage after a rapid evolution for this young core. While inexperience has been their biggest critique, San Antonio is just seven wins away from winning a championship and has not blinked at the moment at any point. The Spurs joined the Thunder as the only two teams in the NBA to win 62+ games in the regular season, going 62-20 to finish as the second seed. San Antonio defeated the Trail Blazers in five games in the opening round and the Timberwolves in six games to reach this stage. Including the playoffs, the Spurs have gone 55-39-2 against the spread, and the game total is 45-51 to the over/under.

De’Aaron Fox has missed the opening two games of this series due to a right ankle sprain and remains questionable for tonight’s matchup. Dylan Harper joins him on the injury report as he is listed as questionable with high adductor soreness. Harper has become a major part of this Spurs team and has proven ready for the playoff atmosphere, but left the previous game due to the injury and did not return. He will be a game-time decision for tonight’s game and is expected to go through pregame warm-ups before a decision is made. If either of the star guards is to miss or be limited, it would put even more responsibility on Stephon Castle, who has turned the ball over 20 times through the first two games of this series.

Victor Wembanyama headlines the production for San Antonio. The first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year posted averages of 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds and 3.1 blocks across the regular season and 22.1 points, 12.3 rebounds and 4.0 blocks per game across the postseason. Castle, Fox, and Harper are vital to the attack, while players like Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie and Carter Bryant each play key roles.

Across the regular season, the Spurs averaged 119.8 points per game, which ranked third in the NBA. They also ranked fourth in offensive rating, sixth in field-goal percentage and 15th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 111.5 points per game against San Antonio, which ranks eighth in the league. It also ranks third in defensive rating, fourth in opponent field-goal percentage and eighth in opponent three-point percentage.

The Oklahoma City Thunder officially reached their championship aspirations last season and are looking to become the first team since the Golden State Warriors in 2017 and 2018 to repeat as champions. They finished the regular season with an NBA-best 64-18 record, and swept their opening two playoff matchups against the Suns and Lakers to reach this stage. Game 1 of this series was Oklahoma City’s first loss in the playoffs. Across the season overall, the Thunder have gone 45-47 against the spread, and the game total is 51-41 to the over/under.

Jalen Williams made his return from his hamstring strain in Game 1 and played 37 minutes of action, in which he finished with 26 points and seven rebounds. However, his hamstring issues popped back up in Game 2 as he left the matchup after just 7:18 of game time. Williams is officially listed as questionable for tonight’s matchup with left hamstring soreness. Thomas Sorber is the lone other player on the injury report as he continues to recover from his ACL surgery.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander earned his second consecutive MVP after posting averages of 31.1 points, 6.6 assists and 4.3 rebounds per game across the regular season. He is leading all scorers in the postseason with 28.7 points per game, along with 7.8 assists and 3.1 rebounds per game. Gilgeous-Alexander was limited to 24 points in Game 1 on an uncharacteristic 7-for-23 shooting, but bounced back with 30 points in the previous victory. The Thunder also count on Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Lu Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe and Jared McCain to play key roles for the team. .

The Thunder closed the regular season ranked fifth in the NBA in scoring at 119.0 points per game. Oklahoma City also ranks seventh in offensive rating, fifth in field-goal percentage and ninth in three-point percentage. Defensively, the Thunder rank second in opponent points per game at 107.9 per game, first in defensive rating, first in opponent field-goal percentage and 25th in opponent three-point percentage.

Game 1 & 2 Takeaways

Game 1 of this series was the type of game that made you remember why the NBA Playoffs are so electric. These were the two biggest heavyweights in the NBA all season, and each threw their best punch in the series opener.

Neither team was able to extend a lead by more than 10 points across the Game 1 matchup. San Antonio held control for 81% of the game, while Oklahoma City only led for 7% of the matchup. Both teams had some shooting struggles, and the starters were forced to log workloads beyond what they are accustomed to.

The biggest matchup takeaways of Game 1 all have to do with Victor Wembanyama. The Thunder opted to primarily face-guard him with Alex Caruso, who did a solid job despite how the raw stats look. Oklahoma City also made a conscious effort to space the floor, launching 45 three-point attempts, in an effort to bring Wembanyama away from the rim to limit his shot-blocking impact. This is a matchup loaded with high-level talent, but Wembanyama shined as the brightest star when push came to shove to lead his team to the win.

It was a different story in Game 2, as Oklahoma City returned to the necessary level of intensity for playoff basketball. The Thunder stretched the lead to as many as 13 and led for 80% of the matchup. They forced 21 turnovers from the Spurs, and Gilgeous-Alexander was the star that shined the brightest during the home stretch of the game.

San Antonio deserves credit for hanging around and never being fully put away, but the series is now all square. Overall, splitting the pair of games in Oklahoma City should be viewed as a success. However, this is only the case if they can successfully defend home court, and they will begin this effort tonight.

Thunder at Spurs Game 3 prediction, pick

Injuries are a real X-factor in this matchup. While both these teams have some of the best depth in the NBA , players like Jalen Williams, De’Aaron Fox, and Dylan Harper are irreplaceable. Any combination of these players missing could lead to some line movement, and it is worth keeping an eye on the status of each as the game continues.

But with each currently listed as questionable, I am backing the Thunder to pick up a Game 3 win on the road. Given Williams’ track record of hamstring issues, it would not be a surprise if he is unable to suit up tonight. But Oklahoma City was able to have plenty of success this season, even while Williams suited up for just 33 regular-season games. Without downplaying the talent level of the All-Star, players like Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Jared McCain, and Cason Wallace are capable of scaling up their roles.

There may be more reason for optimism for Fox and Harper potentially suiting up, but it is a major problem for this Spurs team if they are limited in any way. Ball-handling is not a strength of this Spurs’ roster, with Jordan McLaughlin being forced to play some minutes in the previous game. Most of the ball-handling responsibility has fallen on the shoulders of Stephon Castle, and it has led to a mixed bag of results. While Castle is a hard-nosed defender and impacts winning in plenty of ways, his turnovers have been extremely problematic. He has turned the ball over 20 times across the first two games, and this has led to plenty of easy scoring opportunities for the Thunder in transition.

Defense tends to travel in the postseason, and back the defensing champions to bring their desired standard on this side of the ball. Oklahoma City forced the second-most turnovers in the NBA this season, and count on a clear effort to put the Spurs in uncomfortable spots and for these opportunities to be fairly plentiful. The Thunder generated 27 points off turnovers in Game 2, and this was a major reason why the game swung in their direction.

Expect tonight to be a battle in which neither team is able to take a lead by more than a few points. But the war of attrition that is the postseason looks to be having a greater impact on this current Spurs roster, and there is a level of experience on the Thunder that will matter tonight. Count on Oklahoma City having the necessary defensive level to pick up the victory on the road and take the 2-1 series advantage. The Thunder were not quite ready for the playoff intensity in the opening matchup after back-to-back series sweeps, and there was a different energy from them in Game 2. Expect this to carry over into tonight and for the defending champions to live up to their desired standard.

Best Bet: Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline (+105)