The MLB takes center stage with playoff runs finished in two of the other major American sports leagues, meaning we’re really getting into the thick of baseball season now. The Milwaukee Brewers are among the best teams in the sport and are showing the makings of a legitimate postseason threat. Today, they start a new series in this homestand against the Cleveland Guardians, who are missing their superstar after he suffered an injury over the weekend.

Here’s a betting prediction and pick for tonight’s Guardians vs. Brewers matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Guardians vs. Brewers prediction, preview

Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians are certainly alive in the AL Central picture after winning back-to-back games, tying for the division lead once again at 39-33. They’re 4-6 over their last 10 though, and life without Jose Ramirez may prove difficult as the star is expected to miss several weeks with a hand fracture. The club’s run differential comes in at -3 and they average just 4.01 runs per game behind an offense that’s never really found its form. Cleveland’s OPS sits at .689 with a .232/.317/.372 slash line, a .274 BABIP and a low .140 ISO. The Guardians have just 66 home runs as well, but they’re good at drawing walks with an 0.50 BB/K ratio that ranks fifth in the MLB behind a 10.3% BB% and 20.7% K%, both top-seven marks. While they get the better of their splits against a lefty tonight and slash .246/.328/.382 with a .710 OPS vs. southpaws, the benefit may prove marginal. Ramirez and rookie Chase DeLauter are two of the club’s best bats against lefties — both are injured.

RHP Clade Cecconi starts for Cleveland tonight. He’s 3-5 in 14 games with a 4.83 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 61 Ks across 72.2 IP. He has above-average grades in average exit velocity, BB% and ground-ball rate, but hasn’t gotten going in terms of punchouts. The bullpen backing him is 11th in ERA at 3.68 with a 1.28 WHIP and a standout 17.0% K-BB%.

Milwaukee Brewers

It’s quite difficult to not want a ride on the Brewers bandwagon. At 43-26, they have one of the best records in baseball and have a collection of talent that’s easy to root for. They’ve also gone 6-4 over their last 10 and have a run differential of +112 on the year as well, second best in the entire sport. The Brew Crew post 5.36 runs per game and are slightly more productive at home as well. The OPS of .735 sits eighth in the sport on a slash line of .255/.340/.394, also bringing a .308 BABIP. Perhaps the most impressive part is that this offense is so good even without a surplus of power — a .139 ISO is paltry and the club has only 63 home runs on the year. That doesn’t seem to matter with an 0.53 BB/K ratio that paces the MLB (and a 20.6% K% that ranks sixth lowest) along with excellent work on the basepaths, recording 70 stolen bags which tie for third most. Clearly, the Brewers have the clutch gene, too, with a .281 AVG with RISP that ranks second. Against RHP in particular, they’re slashing .261/.346/.409 for a .754 OPS.

LHP Robert Gasser makes his fifth appearance of the season for Milwaukee tonight. In a limited sample of 18.1 IP, he has 19 strikeouts with a 6.38 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. He doesn’t bring great velocity himself but has produced low average exit velo with a .197 xBA as well, so it’s been a mixed bag of results so far. The Brewers’ bullpen ranks eighth in ERA at 3.51 with a 1.30 WHIP and 14.6% K-BB%, too.

Guardians vs. Brewers pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Brewers as -157 Moneyline favorites at home today. The Guardians are plus-money underdogs at +130 odds to win outright with the run total set at just eight.

Best Bet: Brewers -1.5 (+135)

I understand that Gasser (what an incredible name for a pitcher, if only he threw harder than 92 mph on the fastball) has conceded 13 earned runs and six homers in his four starts, so there’s a chance things get ugly in Milwaukee early on. However, I’m not particularly worried since Cleveland won’t have Ramirez (.956 OPS vs. LHP) or DeLauter (.869 OPS vs. LHP) available in the batting order. Without two of their best hitters against the southpaw, the Guardians will almost certainly have a more difficult time than usual at the plate here. Cecconi has been hittable himself and the Brew Crew are also the hottest-hitting team in baseball over the last two weeks with an .886 OPS and elevated .222 ISO. They’re simply a very good baseball team and much better than this banged-up opponent. I expect a multi-run win to cover this line at plus value.