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Baseball is faster than ever with the implementation of the pitch clock, but the DraftKings Sportsbook also has a market for those who still can’t wait 2.5 hours for results. NRFI bets (No Run First Inning) are exactly what they sound like. They give the bettor the ability to wager specifically on the outcome of a game’s opening frame. Will either team score a run? Yes or no? It’s that simple.
With that in mind, here are my top two NRFI picks for Wednesday, with a focus on tonight’s slate of MLB action.
You probably don’t need me to tell you how good Logan Webb and Cristopher Sanchez are — but I’ll do it anyway. Heck, Sanchez is overcoming an MLB-high .423 opponent BABIP to still pitch to a 2.94 ERA and a 2.62 FIP. Webb has also been unlucky, as a .387 opponent BABIP with RISP has translated into a microscopic 61.8% strand rate. The RHP’s talent level is far closer to his current 3.32 FIP than his bloated 4.86 ERA. Don’t even think twice about it.
However, the unexpected allure of this NRFI bet is just how poor both clubs have been with the bats this season. Philadelphia is getting nothing outside of solid returns from Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, and as such, the Phillies enter play on Wednesday ranking 29th in batting average (.223) and 28th in wOBA (.299). The Giants aren’t doing much better. In fact, in some capacities, they’re somehow doing worse. San Francisco sits 28th in wRC+ (84) and dead-last in MLB in expected wOBA (.297). Expecting either of these team to light up the scoreboard in 2026 is a fool’s errand. Expecting it with this caliber of pitcher on the mound is even sillier.
It’s a similar story in New York. Well, it’s a similar story in the sense that these are two struggling lineups. Cade Cavalli and David Peterson aren’t the same level of starting pitcher. Still, it’s not like either is bad. Peterson’s been a little unlucky with BABIP, which is the main reason for his 5.06 ERA, but he’s also sporting a 3.76 FIP and limiting opponents to a 4.5% barrel rate. Not to mention, his handedness should play well against an extremely left-oriented Nationals roster. Cavalli’s done a nice job with his opponent barrel rate (4.3%), as well. Add in 10.2 strikeouts per nine, and you can see why the former first-round pick is sporting a 2.80 FIP of his own across 24.2 innings.
I’ve buried the lede, though. Simply put, these are two of the worse run producing squads in MLB over the past two weeks. The Mets’ woes have been long documented, and even the return of Juan Soto was nullified by the injury to Francisco Lindor (calf). Across the last 14 days, New York is hitting .228 as a team with an 81 wRC+. Somehow, those numbers look good when compared to Washington in the same stretch. In their past 13 games, the Nationals are hitting below the Mendoza line (.195) with a 74 wRC+ that sits 29th in the league. Woof.
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