Griffin Wong gives his best bet, pick and prediction for Tuesday’s FIFA World Cup match between Colombia and DR Congo.
One of the goals of expanding the World Cup to 48 teams was to allow less-heralded nations to make noise. DR Congo, which hadn’t participated in the tournament since 1974, had its magical moment against Portugal in its tournament opener last Wednesday, scoring its first World Cup goal and recording its first point after holding the Seleçao das Quinas to a draw.
Another point for the Leopards at 10 p.m. ET in Guadalajara against Colombia would put them in an excellent position to advance to the knockout stages, given that their final group stage match is against minnows Uzbekistan. Meanwhile, a win would see Los Cafeteros through to the Round of 32, and they’d win the group if they avoid defeat against Portugal on the final day.
Colombia is a -185 favorite to claim all three points at DraftKings Sportsbook, and DR Congo is +550. A draw is available at +310.
Below, I’ll break down the final game of the evening and provide my favorite bet.
Although Los Cafeteros took all three points and the Leopards merely picked up one, DR Congo fans are probably more satisfied with their team’s performance, given that Portugal entered the tournament as one of the favorites and the White Wolves were expected to come last in the group. Despite getting dominated in possession, the Leopards were in control for much of the match, going tit-for-tat with the Seleçao das Quinas in what was a very evenly-matched game overall, and they had several real chances to find a winner. Meanwhile, Colombia didn’t take the lead against Uzbekistan until the 65th minute, and the 3-1 final score made the performance look more dominant than it actually was. A win is a win, but Los Cafeteros could’ve made a stronger statement after the group favorites dropped points.
On paper, Colombia has much more talent. Luis Díaz was sensational both for Bayern Münich this season (15 goals and 14 assists in the Bundesliga), and he won Player of the Match honors by assisting the opening goal and scoring the eventual winner. Veteran James Rodríguez and substitute Jaminton Campaz both performed well to supplement him, as Campaz iced the game with a header in the 99th minute. All in all, Los Cafeteros were solid, producing 1.61 expected goals and uncorking 15 shots, though they only got four on target. Additionally, while their defense was occasionally an issue in South American qualifying, especially towards the end of the campaign, but they performed relatively well against the White Wolves, limiting them to just five touches and four shots in the box, though one resulted in a goal. They also won more than half of their ground duels, and despite not pressing very frequently, they managed to force two high turnovers ending in a shot. Colombia goalkeeper Camilo Vargas only saved one shot, but Uzbekistan’s goal wasn’t something he could’ve done anything about regardless, so it’s hard to judge his performance.
Los Cafeteros will need to be more clinical with their opportunities to beat DR Congo, a far stronger side than the White Wolves on paper. Thanks in part to contributions to their diaspora in France, the Leopards have talent at every level. Newcastle’s Yoane Wissa, who finished sixth in the Premier League Golden Boot race with Brentford in 2024-25, found the back of the net off a header to claim the Central African side’s first-ever goal at the World Cup, and Real Betis’ Cedric Bukambu also had a couple of quality looks as well. In fact, the Leopards attempted more shots than Portugal did and produced more expected goals, though only two of those shots came inside the box, and their passing could’ve been more clean. DR Congo was even stronger defensively, allowing just 0.65 expected goals’ worth of chances and seven total shots despite the Seleçao das Quinas’ dominating possession. The Leopards have won ground duels at the third-highest rate, and though they rarely pressed, they didn’t have to; they played the offsides trap to perfection, and just as they did in African qualifying, they played extremely cleanly. Lionel Mpasi didn’t have to do much between the sticks, but he came off his line to defend well when he had to.
I expect another low-scoring game in this one. Though Colombia’s defense is weaker than Portugal’s on paper, it was excellent at keeping Uzbekistan out of the box, and DR Congo’s long-range attempts never seriously threatened Diogo Costa. If the Leopards score, it’ll likely need to be from a set piece, as Los Cafeteros were whistled for 10 fouls against Uzbekistan and DR Congo’s lone goal came from a set piece. However, I still back the Leopards’ defense to keep them in it; Colombia’s aggressive attack should be thwarted by their ability to play the offsides trap, and I’m not sure any of Los Cafeteros’ players but Díaz have the one-on-one creation ability to break down their compact back line. Sunderland youngster Noah Sadiki, who had two tackles in 34 minutes, should play more in this one, and he’s no stranger to playing a crucial role in an underdog story. Colombia could definitely win, as it should be more used to the altitude than DR Congo, but backing the Leopards to secure at least a point is strong value.
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